英国20年期国债 (UK20Y) 加自选

周四，英镑跌至1.323美元，为5月12日以来的最低水平，对英国经济前景和预期降息的担忧打压了市场情绪。投资者对英国经济越来越悲观，尤其是与数据更强劲的美国相比。最近的数据，包括第二季度GDP的稳健增长和就业增长，提振了人们对美国经济的信心。与此同时，市场预计英格兰银行今年将再降息两次，而美联储降息的可能性要低得多。7月份英镑下跌3.7%，为2022年9月以来最糟糕的月度表现，财政担忧和增长放缓继续笼罩着英镑的前景。

The British pound fell to $1.323 on Thursday, its weakest level since May 12, as concerns about the UK’s economic outlook and expected rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the British economy, especially in contrast to the US, where data has been stronger. Recent figures, including solid second-quarter GDP growth and job gains, have boosted confidence in the US economy. Meanwhile, markets are pricing in two more interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, compared to a much lower likelihood of cuts from the Federal Reserve. Sterling is down 3.7% in July, its worst monthly performance since September 2022, as fiscal concerns and slowing growth continue to cloud the outlook for the pound.

英镑将迎来2022年预算危机以来最糟糕的一个月。周四，英镑兑美元汇率创下2022年9月以来的最大月度跌幅，反映出投资者对美国经济前景的信心日益增强，对英国经济的悲观情绪日益加剧。

Pound heads for worst month since 2022 budget crisis.The pound headed towards its largest monthly loss against the dollar since September 2022 on Thursday, reflecting growing confidence among investors in the outlook for the U.S. economy and increasing pessimism over the British one.

周四，富时100指数上涨0.5%，徘徊在9180点以上的历史高点附近，得益于强劲的企业盈利和劳斯莱斯的反弹。这家工程集团的股价在上调指引后飙升逾9%，创下历史新高，分析师称业绩“非常强劲”，超过了已经很高的预期。尽管利润下降，壳牌仍上涨了2%以上，因为投资者专注于其保持35亿美元回购速度的承诺，缓解了对交易表现疲软的担忧。然而，在特朗普总统出人意料地免除精炼铜的新美国关税后，矿业股的下跌缓和了该指数的涨幅。这一意外的豁免导致美国铜价下跌，给嘉能可（-2.9%）、英美资源集团（-1.5%）和安托法加斯塔（-5.2%）等主要铜矿商的股票带来压力。与此同时，包装公司Mondi在警告持续严峻的交易条件后下跌超过6%，成为当天FTSE 100指数中最大的落后者。

The FTSE 100 rose 0.5% on Thursday, hovering near record highs above 9,180, boosted by strong corporate earnings and a rally in Rolls-Royce. Shares in the engineering group surged over 9% to a new all-time high after it raised its guidance, with analysts calling the results “very strong,” surpassing already high expectations. Shell also gained more than 2% despite a profit decline, as investors focused on its commitment to maintain a $3.5 billion buyback pace, cushioning concerns over weaker trading performance. However, the index’s gains were tempered by losses in mining stocks following a surprise move by President Trump to exempt refined copper from new US tariffs. This unexpected exemption led to a drop in US copper prices, pressuring stocks like Glencore (-2.9%), Anglo American (-1.5%), and Antofagasta (-5.2%), all major copper miners. Meanwhile, packaging firm Mondi fell over 6% after warning of continued tough trading conditions, making it the day’s biggest FTSE 100 laggard.

面对通货膨胀和就业风险，英格兰银行将再次分拆。预计英格兰银行下周将降息，但政策制定者之间新的三方分裂的可能性突显了通胀上升和就业市场疲软对英国经济构成的相互矛盾的风险。

Bank of England set to split again in face of inflation, job risks.The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates next week but the likelihood of a fresh three-way split among policymakers underscores the conflicting risks posed by rising inflation and a weakening job market to Britain's economy.