英国5年期国债 (UK5Y) 加自选

英镑保持高位，市场等待英国央行决定。周四，英镑/美元在经历了周三的剧烈波动后，稳定在1.3626美元左右。由于市场等待英格兰银行今天晚些时候的政策决定，该货币对仍接近十多周来的最高水平。

GBP Holds Near Highs as Market Awaits BoE Decision.The GBP/USD pair stabilised around 1.3626 USD on Thursday, following a highly volatile session on Wednesday. The pair remains close to its highest level in over ten weeks, as markets await the Bank of England's policy decision later today.

周四，富时100指数持平，小幅上涨，投资者等待英格兰银行今天晚些时候的决定，并消化了美联储25个基点的降息。尽管美联储按预期行事，但它表示对激进的宽松周期持谨慎态度，尽管在劳动力市场疲软的情况下，今年仍有两次降息的空间。美元走强提振了大型跨国公司，但零售商Next拖累了该指数，在一份罕见的报告没有上调指导后下跌了6%以上。尽管上半年销售额增长了10%，利润增长了14%，均高于预期，但Next仍坚持其年度指导方针，并警告下半年增长将放缓。该公司表示，尽管宣布增加股息，但就业疲软和英国经济增长缓慢仍是谨慎的原因。

The FTSE 100 traded flat to slightly higher on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England’s decision later today and digested the Fed’s quarter-point cut. While the Fed delivered as expected, it signaled caution against an aggressive easing cycle, though it still sees room for two more cuts this year amid labor market weakness. A stronger dollar lifted big multinationals, but retailer Next weighed on the index, tumbling over 6% after a rare report without a guidance upgrade. Despite first-half sales rising 10% and profit 14%—both ahead of estimates—Next stuck to its annual guidance and warned second-half growth would slow. The company cited weakening employment and sluggish UK growth as reasons for caution, even as it announced a dividend increase.

英格兰银行在8月份降息25个基点后，预计将在2025年9月的会议上将基准利率保持在4%，因为它在缓慢增长的同时通胀仍然居高不下。8月份CPI为3.8%，与7月份的18个月高点持平，9月份通胀预测将达到4%，并在2027年春季之前保持在2%的目标之上。虽然基本工资的工资增长放缓至4.8%，但劳动力市场继续对物价施加上行压力。英国经济增长仍然疲软，截至7月的三个月仅增长0.2%。英国央行可能会在量化紧缩方面保持谨慎的步伐，在市场波动的情况下减缓每年1000亿英镑的金边债券平仓；持有量已从2022年的8750亿英镑降至5580亿英镑。州长Andrew Bailey表示，利率路径是“开放的”，民意调查显示，货币政策委员会可能会将金边债券的解除额降至675亿英镑左右。

The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 4% during its September 2025 meeting, following a 25 bps cut in August, as it navigates slow growth alongside still-elevated inflation. August CPI came in at 3.8%, matching July’s 18-month high, with inflation forecast to reach 4% in September and remain above the 2% target until spring 2027. While wage growth has slowed to 4.8% for basic pay, the labor market continues to exert upward pressure on prices. UK economic growth remains weak, with just 0.2% expansion in the three months to July. The BoE is likely to maintain its cautious pace on quantitative tightening, slowing the £100 billion annual gilt unwind amid market volatility; holdings have fallen from £875 billion in 2022 to £558 billion. Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled that the rate path is “open,” and polls suggest the Monetary Policy Committee may reduce the gilt unwind to around £67.5 billion.

富时100指数周三小幅上涨，结束了周二下跌0.9%后连续三天的下跌。Marks&Spencer领涨，涨幅超过4%，数据显示，截至9月6日的12周内，食品销售额增长8.5%，超出预期，其秋季时尚系列也受到好评。森特理克公司股价上涨超过3.5%，此前摩根士丹利将其股票评级上调至增持，并将其列为英国公用事业公司的首选，这要归功于Sizewell C和Grain液化天然气终端等项目的资本部署。Barratt Redrow上涨2.5%，调整后的利润超过预期，尽管该房屋建筑商指出了与预算相关的不确定性。不利的一面是，阿斯利康的哮喘药物法森拉在第二次慢性阻塞性肺病试验中失败后下跌了0.7%。在宏观方面，英国8月份CPI保持在3.8%的同比水平，与7月份的18个月高点和预测相符。随着就业数据的稳定，这使得英国央行的利率预期几乎没有变化，到年底只有8个基点的降息。投资者现在等待美联储今天晚些时候预期的25个基点的降息。

The FTSE 100 inched higher on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak after Tuesday’s 0.9% fall. Marks & Spencer led gains, jumping over 4% as data showed food sales up 8.5% in the 12 weeks to September 6, ahead of expectations, with its autumn fashion range also well received. Centrica rose more than 3.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight, naming it its top UK utility pick thanks to capital deployment in projects like Sizewell C and the Grain LNG terminal. Barratt Redrow gained 2.5% as adjusted profits topped forecasts, though the housebuilder flagged budget-related uncertainties. On the downside, AstraZeneca slipped 0.7% after its asthma drug Fasenra failed a second COPD trial. On the macro front, UK CPI held at 3.8% y/y in August, matching July’s 18-month high and forecasts. Along with steady jobs data, this left BoE rate expectations little changed, with just 8 bps of cuts priced by year-end. Investors now await the Fed’s expected 25 bp cut later today.