木 (Lumber) 加自选

周四早盘，新西兰元50指数下跌55点，跌幅0.4%，至13020点，连续第二次下跌，主要受公用事业、医疗保健和金融业的拖累。交易员在美国关税的不确定性中保持谨慎，同时密切关注相关事态发展。在国内，在经济疲软和高失业率的背景下，人们的注意力集中在预计几周内任命新的新西兰储备银行行长上。然而，几位美联储官员周三的评论表明，劳动力市场的担忧继续支持他们的观点，即降息仍有可能。这种情绪有助于限制下跌，增加了本月晚些时候降息的希望。与此同时，在Alphabet的反弹提振标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数后，美国股指期货几乎没有变化。早期的输家包括Ryman Healthcare（-2.0%）、Fletcher Building（-1.8%）、Skellerup Holdings（-1.4%）、Fisher&Paykel（-0.9%）、Colonial Motor（-0.9%，Hallenstein Glasson）（-0.6%）。

The NZX 50 dropped 55 points, or 0.4%, to 13,020 in morning trade on Thursday, marking its second consecutive decline, mainly weighed down by utilities, healthcare, and financials. Traders remained cautious amid US tariff uncertainty while monitoring related developments. Domestically, attention is on the expected appointment of a new RBNZ Governor within weeks, against the backdrop of a weak economy and high unemployment. However, comments from several Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday suggested that labor market concerns continue to support their view that interest rate cuts are still likely. This sentiment helped limit the decline, raising hopes of a cut later this month. Meanwhile, US stock futures were little changed after Alphabet’s rally boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Among early losers were Ryman Healthcare (-2.0%), Fletcher Building (-1.8%), Skellerup Holdings (-1.4%), Fisher & Paykel (-0.9%), Colonial Motor (-0.9%), and Hallenstein Glasson (-0.6%).

Ibovespa指数下跌0.3%，收于139864点，受增长动力恶化和政治不确定性上升的拖累。巴西7月份工业生产较6月份下降0.2%，这是连续第四个月收缩，而同比产出仅小幅增长0.2%，这清楚地表明，昂贵的信贷继续阻碍制造业活动。服务业仅显示出轻微的放缓，而非反弹，8月份PMI小幅升至49.3，但仍处于收缩区间。除了经济降温之外，随着最高联邦法院开始对贾伊尔·博索纳罗政变审判的最后阶段，政治不安依然存在，这增加了治理和制度稳定方面的执行风险。巴西国家石油公司（-1%）、安贝夫公司（-2.1%）、巴西国家电力公司（-1.1%）和伊塔乌萨公司（-1.3%）属于落后者。

The Ibovespa slipped 0.3% to close at 139,864, weighed down by deteriorating growth dynamics and rising political uncertainty. Brazil’s industrial production fell 0.2% in July from June—the fourth straight month of contraction—while year-on-year output rose modestly just 0.2%, clearly showing that expensive credit continues to hinder manufacturing activity. Services are showing only a marginal easing rather than a rebound, with the PMI inching up to 49.3 in August but remaining in contraction territory. On top of the economic cooling, political unease persists as the Supreme Federal Court begins the final stage of Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, raising execution risk around governance and institutional stability. Petrobras (-1%), Ambev (-2.1%), Eletrobras (-1.1%), and Itaúsa (-1.3%), were among top laggards.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周三上涨0.5%，收于创纪录的28751点，主要金融和矿商的上涨提振了该指数，而投资者则期待着加拿大和美国的关键劳工报告，这些报告可能会影响加拿大银行和美联储的货币政策。蒙特利尔银行领涨金融股，上涨1.6%，惠顿贵金属上涨1.1%，与采矿业同步。相比之下，由于有报道称欧佩克+可能在即将召开的会议上提高产量，油价下跌，能源股表现不佳，这令市场感到意外，此前市场普遍预计产量水平将保持不变。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% to close at a record 28,751 on Wednesday as gains in major financials and miners lifted the index while investors looked ahead to key Canadian and US labor reports that could shape monetary policy at the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. BMO led financials with a 1.6% increase, and Wheaton Precious Metals advanced 1.1% to pace the mining sector. In contrast, energy stocks lagged as oil prices fell on reports that OPEC+ may raise output at its upcoming meeting, surprising markets that had largely expected production levels to remain unchanged.

周三，Ibovespa指数上涨约0.1%，徘徊在14万大关之上，低于最近最高法院继续审判被控领导2022年政变阴谋的前总统博索纳罗和七名盟友时创下的纪录水平。这起备受瞩目的案件，包括美国对最高法院法官亚历山大·德·莫赖斯的制裁和对八名法官的签证暂停，加剧了政治不确定性，并影响了投资者情绪。博索纳罗和他的共同被告否认有不当行为，而国会在1月8日亲博索纳洛抗议活动参与者的潜在大赦法案方面面临着越来越大的压力，该法案将在9月12日审判结束后进行辩论。在国内，7月份工业生产下降0.2%，而巴西8月份的服务业采购经理人指数上升至49.3，表明仅略有下降。零售商和转型行业的交易喜忧参半，巴西国家石油公司下跌0.7%，淡水河谷上涨0.3%

The Ibovespa gained about 0.1% to hover above the 140,000 mark on Wednesday, below previous record levels reached recently as the Supreme Court’s continued the trial of former President Bolsonaro and seven allies, accused of leading a 2022 coup plot. The high-profile case, which includes US sanctions on Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes and visa suspensions for eight judges, is fueling political uncertainty and weighing on investor sentiment. Bolsonaro and his co-defendants deny wrongdoing, while Congress faces growing pressure over a potential amnesty bill for January 8 pro-Bolsonaro protests participants, to be debated after the trial ends September 12. Domestically, industrial production fell 0.2% in July, while Brazil’s Services PMI rose to 49.3 in August, signaling only a marginal decline. Retailers and transformation industries traded mixed, with Petrobras down 0.7% and Vale up 0.3%