澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.25%左右,在短暂触及四周低点后反弹,因为通货膨胀的急剧上升促使人们重新评估货币政策前景。7月份,TD-MI通胀指标飙升0.9%,为2023年12月以来的最高月度涨幅,加剧了澳大利亚储备银行对供应链和消费者需求的持续担忧。澳大利亚储备银行仍预计核心通胀将逐步缓解,但到2025年底仍将保持在2-3%目标范围的上半部分,而随着家庭能源补贴的逐步取消,整体通胀预计将在年底接近该范围的顶部,并在2026年保持高位。州长米歇尔·布洛克最近还警告了外部风险,包括脆弱的全球前景,这可能会加剧进口通胀,扰乱澳大利亚依赖贸易的经济。为了缓解贸易担忧,美国维持了对澳大利亚商品10%的基准关税不变。
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.25%, rebounding after briefly touching a four-week low, as a sharp rise in inflation prompted a reassessment of the monetary policy outlook. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge surged 0.9% in July, the highest monthly increase since December 2023, reinforcing the RBA’s lingering concerns about supply chains and consumer demand. The RBA still expects core inflation to ease gradually but remain in the upper half of its 2–3% target range through late 2025, while headline inflation is forecast to approach the top of the range by year-end and stay elevated into 2026 as household energy subsidies are phased out. Governor Michele Bullock also recently warned of external risks, including a fragile global outlook, which could fuel imported inflation and disrupt Australia’s trade-dependent economy. Helping ease trade concerns, the US left the 10% baseline tariff on Australian goods unchanged.