由于中国需求的不确定性,大豆期货价格回落至每蒲式耳10.40美元左右。由于预计可能会出现长期贸易争端,中国正在建立创纪录的大豆库存,这抑制了其在2025/26销售年度对美国新大豆的购买意愿。9月前两周,中国大豆进口量增至115万吨,比上一时期增加14万吨,高于三年平均水平26万吨,但其中大部分进口来自巴西。在供应方面,压力正在显现,因为阿根廷的平均产量预计将增加,支持更高的生产前景。与此同时,尽管美国总统特朗普最近表示,他将于周五与Xi通话,就贸易谈判做出决定,但中国当局尚未证实这一言论。
Soybean futures retreated to around $10.40 per bushel, pressured by uncertainty over Chinese demand. In anticipation of a potentially prolonged trade dispute, China is building a record-high soybean inventory, which is curbing its purchasing intentions for new US soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year. Chinese soybean imports rose to 1.15 million tons in the first two weeks of September, up 140,000 tons from the prior period and 260,000 tons above the three-year average, but the majority of these imports came from Brazil. On the supply side, pressure is emerging as Argentina’s average yields are expected to increase, supporting a higher production outlook. Meanwhile, despite US President Trump recently indicating he would speak with Xi on Friday to make decisions regarding trade negotiations, the comments have not been confirmed by Chinese authorities.