柏油 (Bitumen) 加自选

2025年9月，美国消费信贷总额增长了130.9亿美元，此前8月份上调了31.3亿美元，高于市场预期的100亿美元增长。这相当于每年增长3.1%。循环信贷在8月份下降60.7亿美元后，以每年2%的速度增长，即16.5亿美元。包括汽车和学生贷款在内的非循环信贷增长了2.9%，达到114.4亿美元，而前一个月增长了92亿美元。

Total US consumer credit rose by $13.09 billion in September 2025, following an upwardly revised $3.13 billion gain in August and above market expectations of a $10 billion increase. It is equivalent to an increase of 3.1% at an annual rate. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2% or $1.65 billion, following a $6.07 billion decline in August. Nonrevolving credit which includes auto and student loans went up 2.9% or $11.44 billion, following a $9.2 billion gain in the previous month.

2025年9月，阿根廷工业生产同比下降0.7%，较8月份的4.4%有所缓解。16个制造业部门中有7个部门出现下降，其中纺织品（-20.5%）、服装、皮革和鞋类（-14.0%）、金属制品（-11.8%）以及橡胶和塑料制品（-11.1%）领跌。非金属矿产（-6.0%）、机动车和零部件（-2.5%）以及基本金属（-1.0%）的产量也有所下降。相比之下，其他运输设备（16.4%）、精炼石油和核燃料（7.6%）、机械和设备（4.5%）、化学品（2.2%）以及食品和饮料（0.7%）的增长。按月计算，工业产出在8月份增长0.7%后下滑0.1%。

Argentina’s industrial production fell 0.7% year-on-year in September 2025, easing from a 4.4% drop in August. Seven of sixteen manufacturing divisions recorded declines, led by textiles (-20.5%), clothing, leather and footwear (-14.0%), metal products (-11.8%), and rubber and plastic products (-11.1%). Output also fell for non-metallic minerals (-6.0%), motor vehicles and parts (-2.5%), and basic metals (-1.0%). In contrast, growth was seen in other transport equipment (16.4%), refined petroleum and nuclear fuel (7.6%), machinery and equipment (4.5%), chemicals (2.2%), and food and beverages (0.7%). On a monthly basis, industrial output slipped 0.1% after a 0.7% gain in August.

美元预测：由于美联储的不确定性和中国贸易的压力，美元继续回落。由于美国疲软的就业数据和中国出口下滑抵消了美联储的鹰派立场，使美元保持在修正区间，DXY徘徊在99.50附近。

US Dollar Forecast: Pullback Continues as Fed Uncertainty and China Trade Weigh.DXY stalls near 99.50 as soft U.S. jobs data and China's export slump offset Fed hawkishness, keeping the dollar locked in a corrective range.

美联储的Miran：大量使用稳定币可能会降低中性利率。美联储的Miran：大量使用稳定币可能会降低中性利率

Fed's Miran: Lots of stablecoin usage would likely lower the neutral rate.Fed's Miran: Lots of stablecoin usage would likely lower the neutral rate