铁矿 (IronOre) 加自选

澳大利亚7月贸易顺差73.1亿（预期49.2亿）。2025年7月澳大利亚贸易数据贸易平衡+73.1亿，打破了预期的49.2亿，此前出口额为53.65亿，增长3.3%，远高于前一个月进口额+2.6%，增长1.3%，这并不令人鼓舞。强劲的经济应该会吸引进口。

Australian July trade balance surplus 7310mn (vs. expected 4920mn).Trade data for Australia in July 2025 Trade Balance +7310mn, smashing expectations expected 4,920mn prior 5,365mn Exports (MoM) +3.3%, well ahed of the previous month prior +2 6% Imports (MoM) -1.3%, which is not encouraging. A strong economy should be sucking in imports.

Ibovespa指数下跌0.3%，收于139864点，受增长动力恶化和政治不确定性上升的拖累。巴西7月份工业生产较6月份下降0.2%，这是连续第四个月收缩，而同比产出仅小幅增长0.2%，这清楚地表明，昂贵的信贷继续阻碍制造业活动。服务业仅显示出轻微的放缓，而非反弹，8月份PMI小幅升至49.3，但仍处于收缩区间。除了经济降温之外，随着最高联邦法院开始对贾伊尔·博索纳罗政变审判的最后阶段，政治不安依然存在，这增加了治理和制度稳定方面的执行风险。巴西国家石油公司（-1%）、安贝夫公司（-2.1%）、巴西国家电力公司（-1.1%）和伊塔乌萨公司（-1.3%）属于落后者。

The Ibovespa slipped 0.3% to close at 139,864, weighed down by deteriorating growth dynamics and rising political uncertainty. Brazil’s industrial production fell 0.2% in July from June—the fourth straight month of contraction—while year-on-year output rose modestly just 0.2%, clearly showing that expensive credit continues to hinder manufacturing activity. Services are showing only a marginal easing rather than a rebound, with the PMI inching up to 49.3 in August but remaining in contraction territory. On top of the economic cooling, political unease persists as the Supreme Federal Court begins the final stage of Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, raising execution risk around governance and institutional stability. Petrobras (-1%), Ambev (-2.1%), Eletrobras (-1.1%), and Itaúsa (-1.3%), were among top laggards.

周三，Ibovespa指数上涨约0.1%，徘徊在14万大关之上，低于最近最高法院继续审判被控领导2022年政变阴谋的前总统博索纳罗和七名盟友时创下的纪录水平。这起备受瞩目的案件，包括美国对最高法院法官亚历山大·德·莫赖斯的制裁和对八名法官的签证暂停，加剧了政治不确定性，并影响了投资者情绪。博索纳罗和他的共同被告否认有不当行为，而国会在1月8日亲博索纳洛抗议活动参与者的潜在大赦法案方面面临着越来越大的压力，该法案将在9月12日审判结束后进行辩论。在国内，7月份工业生产下降0.2%，而巴西8月份的服务业采购经理人指数上升至49.3，表明仅略有下降。零售商和转型行业的交易喜忧参半，巴西国家石油公司下跌0.7%，淡水河谷上涨0.3%

The Ibovespa gained about 0.1% to hover above the 140,000 mark on Wednesday, below previous record levels reached recently as the Supreme Court’s continued the trial of former President Bolsonaro and seven allies, accused of leading a 2022 coup plot. The high-profile case, which includes US sanctions on Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes and visa suspensions for eight judges, is fueling political uncertainty and weighing on investor sentiment. Bolsonaro and his co-defendants deny wrongdoing, while Congress faces growing pressure over a potential amnesty bill for January 8 pro-Bolsonaro protests participants, to be debated after the trial ends September 12. Domestically, industrial production fell 0.2% in July, while Brazil’s Services PMI rose to 49.3 in August, signaling only a marginal decline. Retailers and transformation industries traded mixed, with Petrobras down 0.7% and Vale up 0.3%

标准普尔全球采购经理人指数巴西服务业活动指数从7月份的46.3升至2025年8月的49.3，表明活动进一步但仅略有下降。需求疲软的恶化缓解了销售和产出的收缩，尽管新业务连续第五个月下降。所有四个服务业都出现了创纪录的下降，其中金融和保险业的降幅最大。企业仍然保持谨慎，在新工作流入疲软的情况下裁员，但在需求增强的预期的支持下，对未来一年的乐观情绪有所改善。在成本方面，投入价格通胀加速，而产出费用上涨幅度较小。

The S&P Global PMI Brazil Services Business Activity Index rose to 49.3 in August 2025 from 46.3 in July, pointing to a further but only marginal decline in activity. Softer demand deterioration eased contractions in sales and output, though new business fell for a fifth straight month. All four service sectors monitored recorded declines, with the sharpest drop in finance and insurance. Firms remained cautious, shedding jobs amid weak inflows of new work, but optimism about the year ahead improved, supported by expectations of stronger demand. On the cost side, input price inflation accelerated, while output charges rose more modestly.