纯碱 (SodaAsh) 加自选

2025年9月，墨西哥工业生产同比下滑2.4%，此前8月份修正后下降3.3%，几乎与分析师预测的2.4%的下滑一致。这标志着墨西哥工业活动连续第六个月以温和的速度下滑。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，9月份产出下降0.4%，延续了上月0.3%的跌幅。

Mexico's industrial production slipped by 2.4% year-on-year in September 2025, following a revised 3.3% drop in August, almost aligning with analysts' estimates of a 2.4% slump. This marked the sixth consecutive month of a downturn in Mexican industrial activity, and at a modest pace. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, output fell by 0.4% in September, extending a 0.3% decrease in the prior month.

10年期美国国债收益率高于4.1%，接近上周的五周高点4.16%，因市场对持续的政府关门结束持新的乐观态度，而市场继续评估美联储的利率前景。创纪录的41天政府关门可能会在本周结束，之前众议院将对一项临时支出法案进行投票，此前参议院在周末以60票对40票通过了该法案。与此同时，在官方数据被封锁的情况下，私人数据继续描绘出经济喜忧参半的图景。挑战者和密歇根州消费者信心指数的报告指出，劳动力背景不断恶化，增长脆弱，尽管ISM服务业采购经理人指数表明，在通胀加速的情况下，商业需求强劲。市场继续预计美联储将在12月再次降息。在本月初，美联储还将停止其资产负债表决选，并增加国库券购买，以抵消到期的MBS资产。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was above 4.1%, near the five-week high of 4.16% from last week amid fresh optimism on the end of the ongoing government shutdown, while markets continued to assess the rate outlook for the Fed. The record-setting 41-day government shutdown could end this week ahead of the lower House's vote on a temporary spending bill, after being passed by the Senate in a 60-40 vote in the weekend. In the meantime, private data continued to paint a mixed picture on the economy amid the blackout of official releases. Reports from Challenger and the Michigan Consumer Confidence index pointed to a deteriorating labor backdrop and fragile growth, although the ISM Services PMI suggested strong business demand amid accelerating inflation. Markets continue to expect that the Fed will deliver another rate cut in December. At the turn of the month, the Fed will also halt its balance sheet runoff and increase Treasury bill buying to offset maturing MBS assets.

印度BSE Sensex指数在周二震荡后收于一周高点83871.3点，上涨约0.4%，标志着连续第二天上涨。尽管最初对金融业的盈利报告感到担忧，但市场对美印贸易协议和美国政府关门的潜在解决方案的乐观情绪占上风。美国总统特朗普周一表示，华盛顿即将与印度达成“公平贸易协议”。与此同时，投资者等待即将公布的国内通胀数据，预计食品价格下跌将带来温和，这可能为印度储备银行的进一步宽松铺平道路。BEL、Mahindra&Mahindra、Adani Ports、HCL Technologies、Eternal和Infosys领涨，涨幅在1%至2.3%之间。不利的一面是，Bajaj Finance落后，在该公司下调资产增长预测后下跌了7%以上，尽管该公司报告的合并净利润增长了23%。Bajaj Finserv、塔塔汽车光伏、塔塔钢铁、Kotak Mahindra银行和电网也是最大的输家，跌幅高达6%。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.4% up at an over one-week high of 83,871.3 after a choppy session on Tuesday, marking the second day of gains. Market optimism over a US-India trade deal and a potential resolution to the US government shutdown prevailed, despite initial concerns over earnings reports from financials. US President Trump said on Monday that Washington was close to sealing a "fair trade deal" with India. Meanwhile, investors awaited upcoming domestic inflation data, expecting moderation from lower food prices, which could pave the way for additional RBI easing. BEL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, HCL Technologies, Eternal, and Infosys led the advance, rising between 1% and 2.3%. On the downside, Bajaj Finance lagged, slumping over 7%, after the company cut its asset growth forecast, despite reporting a 23% surge in consolidated net profit. Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and PowerGrid were also among the top losers, shedding up to 6%.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率升至0.80左右，为10月下旬以来的最高点，寄希望于美国和瑞士很快达成贸易协议。据彭博社报道，在瑞士高管与特朗普总统会晤后，美国和瑞士之间的贸易协议可能会在未来两周内宣布，美国对瑞士出口的关税可能会从目前的39%降至15%。美国总统后来证实，他的政府正在“努力达成一项协议，将关税降低一点。”与此同时，瑞士国家银行（SNB）董事长马丁·施莱格尔（Martin Schlegel）最近的言论仍支持法郎，他排除了恢复负利率的可能性。施莱格尔表示，通胀应“在未来几个季度略有上升”，这证明了长期保持利率不变的合理性。与此同时，避险需求持续存在，尽管水平较低，反映出尽管美国政府关门即将结束，但市场仍持谨慎态度。

The Swiss franc strengthened to around 0.80 per USD, its highest since late October, on hopes for a trade deal between the US and Switzerland soon. According to Bloomberg, a trade deal between the US and Switzerland could be announced in the next two weeks, with US tariffs on Swiss exports likely reduced to 15% from the current 39%, following meetings between top Swiss executives and President Trump. The US President later confirmed his administration was “working on a deal to get their tariffs a little bit lower.” Meanwhile, the franc remains supported by recent comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel, who ruled out a return to negative interest rates. Schlegel said inflation should “rise slightly in the coming quarters”, justifying keeping rates on hold for an extended period. At the same time, safe-haven demand persisted, albeit at lower levels, reflecting cautious sentiment despite the prospect of an imminent end to the US government shutdown.