南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

南非的外汇储备总额从上个月的697.4亿美元增至2025年10月的715.5亿美元，创下历史新高。外汇储备（488.39亿美元对9月份的477.95亿美元）和黄金储备（162.1亿美元对153.83亿美元）均有所增加。相比之下，特别提款权持有量（65.01亿美元对65.61亿美元）有所减少，而代表央行未结算或掉期交易的远期头寸从上一时期的11.78亿美元大幅降至10月份的6.02亿美元。

Gross foreign exchange reserves in South Africa rose to a record high of $71.55 billion in October 2025 from $69.74 billion in the previous month. Increases were recorded in foreign currency reserves ($48.839 billion vs $47.795 billion in September) and gold reserves ($16.210 billion vs $15.383 billion). In contrast, SDR holdings ($6.501 billion vs $6.561 billion) posted a decrease, while the forward position, representing the central bank’s unsettled or swap transactions, fell significantly to $0.602 billion in October from $1.178 billion in the preceding period.

在金价反弹和美元大致稳定的支撑下，南非兰特在最近触及一个多月低点后小幅上涨至17.5美元以下。投资者在评估经济数据时，仍关注利率前景。一项新的采购经理人指数调查显示，南非私营部门10月份出现收缩，这是七个月来的首次下降。在货币政策方面，南非储备银行预计不会在11月的会议上降息，因为政策制定者仍专注于将通胀预期降至3%。7月，央行暗示，其隐含的通胀目标是接近3%-6%目标区间的下限。南非的年通货膨胀率从8月份的3.3%上升到2025年9月的3.4%，但略低于市场预测的3.5%。

The South African rand edged up to trade below 17.5 per USD after recently touching over one-month lows, supported by a rebound in gold prices and a broadly steady dollar. Investors remained focused on the outlook for interest rates, while assessing economic data. A fresh PMI survey showed South Africa's private sector contracted in October, marking the first decline in seven months. On the monetary policy front, the South African Reserve Bank is not anticipated to cut rates at its November meeting, as policymakers remain focused on bringing inflation expectations down to 3%. In July, the central bank signaled that it is implicitly aiming for inflation near the lower bound of its 3%-6% target range. South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, but came slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%.

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从9月的50.2降至2025年10月的48.8，这是自3月以来私营部门活动的首次收缩。产量和新订单以七个月来最快的速度下降，而出口销售额则以近一年来的最快速度下降。尽管就业人数略有上升，但公司以八个月来最快的速度减少了积压的工作。在需求疲软的情况下，投入品采购下降，而供应商的交货时间以创纪录的速度改善，反映出物流更加顺畅，投入品需求降低。成本压力进一步缓和，在兰特走强和工资增长放缓的推动下，购买价格通胀处于五年多来的最低水平。销售价格通胀也有所放缓，部分原因是建筑成本下降。尽管面临这些挑战，商业情绪仍然谨慎乐观，34%的公司预计未来几个月产量将增长，而5%的公司预计产量将下降。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 48.8 in October 2025 from 50.2 in September, marking the first contraction in private sector activity since March. Output and new orders declined at the fastest pace in seven months, while export sales dropped at the sharpest rate in nearly a year. Firms reduced backlogs of work at the quickest pace in eight months, even as employment rose slightly. Input purchases fell amid weaker demand, while suppliers’ delivery times improved at a joint-record pace, reflecting smoother logistics and lower input needs. Cost pressures moderated further, with purchasing price inflation at the softest level in over five years, aided by a stronger rand and subdued wage growth. Selling price inflation also slowed, partly due to falling construction costs. Despite these challenges, business sentiment remained cautiously positive, with 34% of firms expecting output growth in the coming months, compared with 5% anticipating a decline.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为17.5，为10月10日以来的最低水平，追随贵金属价格下跌，尤其是黄金价格，因对美国进一步降息的预期降低。在国内，南非储备银行11月会议上降息似乎不太可能，央行仍在优先考虑将通胀预期降至3%的努力。7月，央行暗示，其隐含的通胀目标是接近3%-6%目标区间的下限。南非的年通货膨胀率从8月份的3.3%上升到2025年9月的3.4%，但略低于市场预测的3.5%。今年到目前为止，兰特仍上涨了近7%，这得益于通胀的抑制、央行的信誉、财政前景的改善和联合政府的稳定。尽管自唐纳德·特朗普总统上任以来，该国经济增长缓慢，地缘政治风险加剧。

The South African rand traded around 17.5 per USD, its lowest level since October 10, tracking a decline in prices of precious metals, particularly gold, on reduced expectations of further US rate cuts. Domestically, an interest rate cut at the South African Reserve Bank’s November meeting appears unlikely, with the central bank still prioritizing efforts to pull inflation expectations down to 3%. In July, the central bank signaled that it is implicitly aiming for inflation near the lower bound of its 3%–6% target range. South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, but coming slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%. The rand is still up nearly 7% so far this year, supported by subdued inflation, the central bank’s credibility, an improved fiscal outlook and the stability of the coalition government. This is despite the country's slow economic growth and heightened geopolitical risks since President Donald Trump took office.