南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

2025年5月，南非制造业产出同比增长0.5%，标志着4月份修正后的6.4%的衰退有所好转，结束了6个月的连败。分析师此前预计跌幅为1.5%。最大的提振来自基础钢铁、有色金属产品、金属产品和机械部门，增长了4.3%（4月份为-6.5%），对整体产出的贡献率为0.9个百分点。额外的支持来自玻璃和非金属矿产品行业（+4.2%对2%）；木材和木制品、纸张、出版和印刷（+3.1%对-0.6%）以及纺织品、服装、皮革和鞋类（+1.7%对-4.3%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，工业产出在上个月下调1.7%后，增长了2%。与前三个月相比，截至2025年5月的三个月制造业产量下降了0.3%。

Manufacturing output in South Africa increased by 0.5% year-on-year in May 2025, marking a turnaround from a revised 6.4% slump in April and snapping a six-month losing streak. Analysts had expected a 1.5% decline. The biggest boost came from the basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products, and machinery division, which expanded by 4.3% (vs -6.5% in April) and contributed 0.9 percentage points to overall output. Additional support came from the glass and non-metallic mineral products sector (+4.2% vs 2%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (+3.1% vs -0.6%) and textiles, clothing, leather and footwear (+1.7% vs -4.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output rose by 2%, after a downwardly revised 1.7% increase in the prior month. Manufacturing production fell by 0.3% in the three months ended May 2025 compared with the previous three months.

南非兰特兑美元汇率升至17.8，略高于最近一周的低点17.9，这是由于特朗普总统将新关税推迟到8月1日后，人们对美国可能达成贸易协议的希望提振的。他告诉拉马福萨总统，将对所有南非商品征收30%的关税，但表示如果贸易变得更加平衡，美国仍对合作持开放态度。就在几小时前，特朗普威胁要对金砖国家经济集团的所有成员国征收10%的额外税。美国是仅次于中国的第二大贸易伙伴，南非的汽车和农业部门可以免税进入美国市场。据报道，比勒陀利亚正寻求将关税限制在10%，并排除汽车、农产品、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等关键行业。随着通货膨胀的抑制和经济增长的压力，进一步的货币宽松政策可能会持续到2025年，尽管目前尚不清楚央行是本月采取行动还是等到9月。

The South African rand rose toward 17.8 per USD, up slightly from a recent over one-week low of 17.9, lifted by hopes of a potential US trade deal after President Trump delayed new tariffs until August 1. He told President Ramaphosa that a 30% tariff would be imposed on all South African goods, but said the US remains open to cooperation if trade becomes more balanced. The announcement came hours after the Trump threatened to impose an additional 10% levy on all countries that form part of the BRICS economic bloc. The US is its second-biggest trading partner after China, and South Africa's automobile and farming sectors had duty-free access to the US market. Pretoria is reportedly seeking to cap the tariff at 10% and exclude key sectors such as vehicles, farm products, auto parts, steel, and aluminum. With inflation subdued and growth under strain, further monetary easing is likely into 2025 — though it remains unclear if the central bank will act this month or wait until September.

南非10年期政府债券收益率攀升至9.80%以上，高于最近5个月的低点9.56%，原因是联合政府内部再次出现摩擦，政治不确定性日益增加。在副贸易部长被解职后，南非团结政府的紧张局势加剧。副贸易部长是拉马福萨总统的政党非洲人国民大会（ANC）的主要联盟伙伴的政治家。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要对支持他所谓的“反美金砖四国政策”的国家征收10%的关税。这一警告是在包括南非在内的金砖国家领导人开始在里约热内卢举行峰会之际发出的。在暂停谈判之前，南非已经对某些进口产品征收10%的关税和30%的额外关税。自5月以来，比勒陀利亚一直在寻求一项贸易协议，豁免汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等关键出口产品，以换取购买美国液化天然气的10年承诺。

The yield on the South African 10-year government bond climbed above 9.80%, up from recent 5-month lows of 9.56%, amid growing political uncertainty caused by renewed friction within the coalition government. Tensions have intensified in South Africa's unity government following the sacking of the deputy trade minister, a politician from the main coalition partner of President Ramaphosa's party the African National Congress (ANC). Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened a 10% tariff on nations supporting what he called an “anti-American BRIC policy.” The warning came as BRICS leaders—including South Africa—began a summit in Rio de Janeiro. South Africa had already faced a 10% tariff and an additional 30% duty on certain imports before a pause was implemented to allow for negotiations. Since May, Pretoria has been seeking a trade deal to exempt key exports—such as autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum—in exchange for a 10-year commitment to purchase US liquefied natural gas.

在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对与金砖国家集团结盟的国家征收10%的关税后，南非兰特贬值超过1%，至1美元兑17.8兰特左右，为6月27日以来的最低水平。特朗普还重申了此前的警告，即如果金砖国家在双边贸易中放弃美元，将对其征收高达100%的关税，并引用了他所说的日益反美的政策。他还警告其他国家不要加入该联盟。在谈判暂时暂停之前，南非已经对某些进口商品征收10%的关税和30%的额外关税，此后要求有更多时间在7月9日的最后期限之前与特朗普政府敲定贸易协议。与此同时，南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨面临着一场新的内部危机，此前一名警察官员指责他的一名部长干涉了对政治暗杀的调查。

The South African rand depreciated more than 1% to around 17.8 per USD, the lowest level since June 27, following remarks by US President Donald Trump threatening a 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with the BRICS bloc. Trump also reiterated previous warnings of imposing tariffs of up to 100% on BRICS nations should they abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade, citing what he described as increasingly anti-American policies. He further warned other countries against joining the alliance. South Africa was already hit with a 10% tariff and an additional 30% duty on certain imports before a temporary pause for negotiations, and has since requested more time to finalize a trade deal with the Trump administration ahead of the July 9 deadline. In the meantime, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is confronting a new internal crisis after a police official accused one of his ministers of interfering in an investigation into political assassinations.