墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

尽管贸易数据强劲，但墨西哥比索仍下跌，因为美国的贸易担忧持续存在。尽管华尔街上涨，美元指数下跌0.64%，但周一墨西哥比索兑美元下跌0.48%。在撰写本文时，美元/墨西哥比索在从每日低点19.47反弹后，交易价格为19.58。

Mexican Peso slips despite strong trade data, as US trade worries persist.The Mexican Peso weakened by 0.48% against the US Dollar on Monday, despite Wall Street gains and a 0.64% drop in the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.58 after bouncing off daily lows of 19.47.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率徘徊在19.6以下，接近4月25日19.51的六个多月来的最高水平，这得益于墨西哥银行的鹰派前景和美元的广泛疲软。在国内，3月份失业率创下2.2%的历史新低，突显了限制性政策下劳动力市场的弹性，而4月中旬核心通胀率加速至3.9%，为2024年9月以来的最高水平，这强化了Banxico维持11%基准利率的决定。这种巨大的实际利率差异继续吸引套利交易流入，尽管特朗普总统和谢恩鲍姆总统之间的“非常富有成效”的通话缓解了人们对美国对钢铁、汽车和农产品征收关税的担忧。稳定的石油出口收入进一步提振了墨西哥的对外账户，而美元走软——受美中贸易迅速解决的希望破灭的推动——促使投资者重新评估美国资产，转而青睐收益率更高的替代品。

The Mexican peso hovered below 19.6 per USD, near its highest level in over six months of 19.51 seen April 25th, buoyed by a hawkish Bank of Mexico outlook and broad-based dollar softness. At home, unemployment hit a record-low of 2.2% in March, underscoring labor-market resilience under restrictive policy, while core inflation accelerated to 3.9 % in mid-April—the highest since September 2024—reinforcing Banxico’s decision to maintain its 11 % benchmark rate. That wide real interest-rate differential continues to attract carry-trade inflows, even as a “very productive” call between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum allayed fears of U.S. tariffs on steel, autos and produce. Steady oil-export revenues further bolster Mexico’s external accounts, while a softer dollar—driven by fading hopes for a rapid U.S.-China trade resolution—has prompted investors to reassess U.S. assets in favor of higher-yielding alternatives.

2025年3月，墨西哥的贸易顺差为34.4亿美元，高于去年同期的19.9亿美元，超过了市场预期的20.6亿美元顺差。这是连续第二次出现顺差，原因是企业因预期美国关税而加快发货，导致出口激增。出口增长9.6%，达到555亿美元，其中非石油出口增长9.7%，包括矿产品（+34.1%）、农产品（-2.8%）和制成品（+10%）。工业机械设备（50.2%）和汽车（6.2%）的出口增长最快，这是由于对美国的销售额增长了6.5%，对其他市场的销售额增长4.0%。石油出口增长9.7%。对美国的出货量增长了9.0%，而对其他市场的出口增长了13.7%。与此同时，由于非石油产品（+8.0%）和中间产品（+9.7%）的购买量增加，进口增长了7.1%，而石油（-6.3%）、资本货物（-1.3%）和消费品（-1.2%）均有所下降。

Mexico recorded a trade surplus of $3.44 billion in March 2025, up from $1.99 billion in the same period of the previous year and exceeding market expectations of $2.06 billion surplus. This was the second consecutive surplus , driven by surge in exports as companies speed up shipments in anticipation of US tariffs. Exports grew 9.6% to $55.5 billion, led by a 9.7% increase in non-oil shipments, including mining products (+34.1%), agricultural products (-2.8%) and manufactured goods (+10%).Exports rose the most for machinery and equipment for industry (50.2%), and cars ( 6.2%) driven by increases of 6.5% in sales to the US and 4.0% in those directed to other markets. Oil exports increased by 9.7%. Shipments to the US grew by 9.0%, while exports to other markets increased by 13.7%. At the same time, imports rose by 7.1% driven by higher purchases of non-oil products (+8.0%) and intermediate goods (+9.7%) while oil (-6.3%), capital goods (-1.3%) and consumer goods (-1.2%) all declined.

由于美国关税冲击，墨西哥经济今年几乎没有增长。路透社的一项民意调查显示，由于上个季度处于技术性衰退的边缘后，美国的关税冲击，墨西哥经济今年几乎不会增长。

Mexico economy to barely grow this year thanks to US tariff shock.Mexico's economy will barely grow at all this year thanks to the U.S. tariff shock after standing on the brink of technical recession last quarter, a Reuters poll showed.