墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过18.4,为2024年7月以来的最高水平,原因是美元走弱,墨西哥宏观基本面保持不变,增加了以比索计价的资产的吸引力。美元触及自7月底以来的最低水平,市场等待美联储的政策决定,并在数据显示劳动力市场降温后,预计将降息25个基点,但有50个基点的可能性很小。与此同时,墨西哥银行(Banco de México)一直保持紧缩政策,并表示即使在通胀放缓的情况下也会谨慎调整。与同行相比,实际利率差异更大,远期市场对结转的持续需求,以及墨西哥与美国的密切贸易联系,都支持了对当地票据的需求,限制了资本外流。
The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.4 per US dollar, the strongest level since July 2024 as the US dollar weakened and Mexico’s macro fundamentals held up, increasing the appeal of peso-denominated assets. The dollar hit its weakest level since late July as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and priced in a 25 basis point cut with a small chance of a 50 basis point move after data showed a cooling labour market. At the same time Banco de México has kept policy tight and signalled careful calibration even as inflation moderates. Higher real interest differentials relative to peers, sustained demand for carry in forward markets, and Mexico’s close trade links with the United States have all supported demand for local paper, limiting capital outflows.