墨西哥股票指数 (IPCMexico) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过18.6，达到11个月高点，因为投资者权衡了持续的价格压力和强劲的外部平衡。6月份核心通胀率意外上升至4.24%，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，这使市场预期围绕墨西哥银行谨慎的降息步伐，即使在6月26日决定将政策利率下调50个基点至8%后，也保持了可观的实际收益缓冲。与此同时，强劲的外汇流入——在1月至5月贸易顺差超过90亿美元（包括5月10.3亿美元的顺差）和6月创纪录的57亿美元汇款的推动下——加强了央行的外汇储备。从外部来看，美元因新的关税威胁而略有反弹，但墨西哥在推迟或减轻互惠关税的谈判中取得的进展在当地有所缓和，为出口商提供了关键的喘息空间。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.6 per USD, reaching eleven-month highs, as investors weighed persistent price pressures against strong external balances. June’s unexpected rise in core inflation to 4.24%, its highest since April 2024, has kept market expectations anchored around Banco de México’s cautious pace of rate cuts, preserving a substantial real yield cushion even after the June 26th decision to trim the policy rate by 50 bps to 8%. Meanwhile, robust foreign-exchange inflows—driven by a widening January–May trade surplus of over $9 billion (including a $1.03 billion surplus in May) and record June remittances of $5.7 billion—have fortified the central bank’s FX reserves. Externally, the US dollar’s slight rebound on renewed tariff threats has been tempered locally by Mexico’s progress in negotiations to delay or mitigate reciprocal duties, lending exporters critical breathing room.

墨西哥的年通货膨胀率从5月份的4.42%降至2025年6月的4.32%，与市场预期的4.31%基本一致。农产品（5.04%对6.76%）和能源（3.56%对3.93%）的价格涨幅有所放缓。相比之下，商品（3.91%对3.67%）、食品、饮料和烟草（4.89%对4.63%）以及服务（4.62%对4.49%）的通货膨胀加速。核心通胀率也有所上升，达到4.24%，高于上月的4.06%。按月计算，消费者价格指数上涨0.28%，与5月份持平。

Mexico’s annual inflation rate slowed to 4.32% in June 2025 from 4.42% in May, largely in line with market expectations of 4.31%. Price increases eased for agricultural products (5.04% vs 6.76%) and energy (3.56% vs 3.93%). In contrast, inflation accelerated for goods (3.91% vs 3.67%), food, beverages, and tobacco (4.89% vs 4.63%) as well as services (4.62% vs 4.49%). Core inflation also rose, reaching 4.24%, up from 4.06% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.28%, unchanged from May’s pace.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率在7月4日升至2024年8月的最高点18.63后跌破18.67，因为特朗普总统确认互惠关税将于8月1日生效后，美元走强。尽管如此，墨西哥的外部地位仍然强劲，因为1月至5月的累计贸易顺差扩大到90多亿美元，仅5月份就有10.3亿美元的顺差，6月份的汇款攀升到创纪录的57亿美元，支撑了外汇储备。在政策方面，墨西哥银行6月26日决定将基准利率下调50个基点至8%，同时坚持进一步下调取决于明显的通货紧缩，这保留了支撑比索需求的慷慨的实际收益率优势。在国内，劳动力市场和商业活动继续跑赢地区同行，失业率处于2.7%的低位，尽管6月份的采购经理人指数降至46.3，但仍强于拉丁美洲的大多数国家。

The Mexican peso slipped past 18.67 per USD after rallying to an August-2024 high of 18.63 on July 4th, as the US dollar strengthened following President Trump’s confirmation that reciprocal tariffs will take effect on August 1st. Nevertheless, Mexico’s external position remains robust as the cumulative January–May trade surplus expanded to over $9 billion, including a $1.03 billion surplus in May alone, and June remittances climbed to a record $5.7 billion, shoring up foreign-exchange reserves. On the policy front, Banco de México’s June 26th decision to cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 8%, while insisting further reductions hinge on clear disinflation, has preserved a generous real yield advantage that underpins peso demand. At home, labor markets and business activity continue to outperform regional peers as unemployment stands at a low 2.7%, and although June’s PMI eased to 46.3, it remains stronger than most in Latin America.

2025年6月，墨西哥汽车产量同比增长4.9%，达到361047辆，从5月份的2%下降反弹。这一结果表明，尽管美国贸易政策持续存在不确定性，但在美墨加协定框架和该行业深度区域一体化的支持下，该行业仍具有弹性。在主要汽车制造商中，增幅最大的是丰田（+24.7%，至27108）、起亚（+24.3%，至25970）和大众（+10.1%，至36271）。福特（+5.4%，至40458）、通用汽车（+4.3%，至73609）和Stellantis（+3.8%，至37505）也扩大了产量。相比之下，马自达（-19.0%至12508）、奥迪（-11.8%至14110）、梅赛德斯-奔驰（-7.9%至5147）、本田（-6.4%至15180）和日产（-2.2%至59112）的产量下降。2025年上半年，汽车总产量小幅增长0.5%，达到201万辆。

Mexico's car production rose 4.9% year-on-year in June 2025 to 361,047 units, rebounding from a 2% drop in May. The result suggests resilience in the industry despite ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy, supported by the USMCA framework and the sector’s deep regional integration. Among major automakers, the strongest increases came from Toyota (+24.7% to 27,108), KIA (+24.3% to 25,970), and Volkswagen (+10.1% to 36,271). Ford (+5.4% to 40,458), General Motors (+4.3% to 73,609), and Stellantis (+3.8% to 37,505) also expanded output. In contrast, production declined for Mazda (-19.0% to 12,508), Audi (-11.8% to 14,110), Mercedes-Benz (-7.9% to 5,147), Honda (-6.4% to 15,180), and Nissan (-2.2% to 59,112). In the first half of 2025, total vehicle output edged up 0.5% to 2.01 million units.