牙买加股票指数 (JSE) 加自选

牙买加银行在6月份的会议上将政策利率维持在5.75%，表示目前的立场仍然适合在未来两年内将通货膨胀率保持在4.0%-6.0%的目标范围内。这一决定是在全球不确定因素下做出的，包括贸易政策的转变、地缘政治紧张局势和主要经济体的利率变动。尽管通胀前景的风险向上倾斜，但通胀保持稳定，2025年5月的年度整体通胀率为5.2%，与去年同期持平，核心通胀率为4.6%。谷物、液化天然气和石油的国际价格下跌有助于缓解通胀压力，尽管地缘政治的发展可能会扭转这一趋势。日本央行重申其对价格稳定的承诺，并将继续密切监测数据，随时准备根据需要调整政策。

The Bank of Jamaica held its policy rate at 5.75% during its June meetings, stating the current stance remains appropriate to keep inflation within the 4.0–6.0% target range over the next two years. The decision comes amid global uncertainties, including shifting trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate movements in major economies. While risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside, inflation has remained stable, with annual headline inflation at 5.2% in May 2025—unchanged from a year earlier—and core inflation at 4.6%. Declining international prices for grains, LNG, and oil have helped ease inflationary pressure, though geopolitical developments could reverse this trend. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and will continue to monitor data closely, ready to adjust policy as needed.

牙买加银行在2025年5月的会议上将其货币政策利率下调25个基点至5.75%，同时整体通胀率仍在4.0-6.0%的目标范围内。2025年4月，年度整体通胀率上升至5.3%，与2024年4月的结果一致，而核心通胀率（不包括农产品和燃料）保持在4.4%。国内经济在年初显示出温和的改善，在上一季度收缩后，2025年第一季度实际GDP环比增长0.2%。在稳定的汇率和全球大宗商品价格下跌的支撑下，进口通胀仍得到控制。通胀预期和外汇市场总体保持稳定。展望未来，假设油价温和下跌和通胀预期稳定，预计未来两年整体通胀将趋向于目标区间的下半部分。

The Bank of Jamaica reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75% in its May 2025 meeting, amid continued headline inflation tracking within the 4.0–6.0% target range. Annual headline inflation rose to 5.3% in April 2025, in line with April 2024’s outturn, while core inflation (excluding agricultural food products and fuel) held at 4.4%. The domestic economy showed modest improvement early in the year, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025 after a contraction in the prior quarter. Imported inflation remained contained, supported by stable exchange rates and lower global commodity prices. Inflation expectations and the foreign exchange market have been broadly stable. Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to trend toward the lower half of the target range over the next two years, assuming moderate oil price declines and steady inflation expectations.

牙买加经济在2024年第四季度同比收缩0.8%，此前一季度修正后下降了3.3%。这标志着自疫情以来首次连续出现季度收缩，原因是农业、林业和渔业（第三季度为-10.6%对-12.5%）、采矿和采石业（-2.3%对-17.4%）、公用事业（-1.4%对-5.8%）、酒店和餐馆（-0.3%对-4.9%）以及制造业（-0.5%对-4.0%）等几个行业大幅下降。与此同时，建筑业继续下降，但速度较慢（-2.7%对-3.3%），而批发和零售业略有反弹（0.2%对-3.0%）。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，牙买加经济在第四季度增长了1.4%，从第三季度1.5%的下滑中反弹。

The economy of Jamaica contracted by 0.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a revised decline of 3.3% in the previous quarter. This marks the first back-to-back quarterly contractions since the pandemic, driven by sharp declines in several sectors, including agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-10.6% vs. -12.5% in Q3), mining and quarrying (-2.3% vs. -17.4%), utilities (-1.4% vs. -5.8%), hotels and restaurants (-0.3% vs. -4.9%), and manufacturing (-0.5% vs. -4.0%). Meanwhile, construction continued to decline but at a slower pace (-2.7% vs. -3.3%), while wholesale and retail trade rebounded slightly (0.2% vs. -3.0%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the Jamaican economy expanded by 1.4% in Q4, rebounding from the 1.5% downturn from Q3.

牙买加银行在2025年3月的会议上将其货币政策利率维持在6%不变，因为牙买加主要贸易伙伴的经济政策不确定性日益增加。董事会认为，这一立场将支持通胀在未来两年内保持在目标范围内。通货膨胀已经稳定下来，2025年2月的整体通货膨胀率为4.4%，低于一年前的6.2%，核心通货膨胀率为3.8%，继续保持温和的趋势。通货膨胀的减少是由稳定的汇率、进口通货膨胀的减少和商品价格的下跌推动的。货币政策委员会预计通胀将保持稳定，除非有任何外部冲击，尽管它承认全球贸易政策变化，特别是美国和其他主要经济体的潜在风险。日本央行仍然致力于维护稳定，如果通货膨胀因这些不确定性而偏离目标，日本央行准备调整其政策立场。

The Bank of Jamaica left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 6% in its March 2025 meeting, amid rising uncertainty over economic policies in Jamaica's key trading partners. The Board believes this stance will support inflation staying within the target range over the next two years. Inflation has stabilized, with headline inflation at 4.4% in February 2025, down from 6.2% a year earlier, and core inflation at 3.8%, continuing a trend of moderation. This reduction in inflation was driven by stable exchange rates, reduced imported inflation, and lower commodity prices. The MPC expects inflation to remain stable, barring any external shocks, though it acknowledged potential risks from global trade policy changes, particularly from the United States and other major economies. The BOJ remains committed to preserving stability and is ready to adjust its policy stance if inflation deviates from the target due to these uncertainties.