巴西IBOVESPA股指 (iBovespa) 加自选

9月份，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率约为5.3，为2024年6月以来的最高水平，投资者对美联储和巴西央行的最新决定做出了反应。美联储将利率下调了25个基点，主席鲍威尔将此举描述为“风险管理”调整，而不是新宽松周期的开始，并指出自4月以来，更高、更持久的通胀风险有所缓解。只有新任命的美联储理事Stephen Miran投票支持更大幅度的50个基点降息，导致异议比市场预期的要少。在国内，巴西央行将塞利克利率维持在15%，这表明其将继续采取鹰派立场来控制通货膨胀。最近的数据显示，经济增长放缓，而通货膨胀仍得到控制，使央行得以维持紧缩政策。

The Brazilian real traded around 5.3 per US dollar in September, highest level since June 2024, as investors reacted to the latest US Federal Reserve and Brazilian Central Bank decisions. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell describing the move as a “risk management” adjustment rather than the start of a new easing cycle, noting that risks of higher and more persistent inflation have eased since April. Only newly appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point cut, resulting in fewer dissents than markets had expected. Domestically, the Central Bank of Brazil maintained the Selic rate at 15%, signaling a continued hawkish stance to control inflation. Recent data show moderation in economic growth while inflation remains contained, allowing the central bank to sustain a tight policy.

巴西央行在9月份选择将基准利率维持在15%，理由是在持续的不确定性下，需要将通货膨胀率保持在目标水平。外部因素，包括美国经济状况和全球金融波动，继续影响新兴市场，而在国内，增长正在放缓，但劳动力市场仍然强劲，通货膨胀率仍高于目标。2025年和2026年的通胀预期仍高达4.8%和4.3%，而Copom预计2027年初的通胀率为3.4%。央行强调了上行风险，如弹性服务通胀和汇率走弱，以及下行风险，如国内经济进一步放缓或大宗商品价格下跌。Copom强调，未来可能需要调整政策以保持价格稳定。这一决定反映了一种谨慎的态度，在控制通胀的需要与支持经济活动之间取得了平衡。

Brazil’s central bank opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 15% in September, citing the need to keep inflation on a path toward the target amid persistent uncertainty. External factors, including US economic conditions and global financial volatility, continue to influence emerging markets, while domestically, growth is moderating but the labor market remains strong and inflation stays above target. Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 remain elevated at 4.8% and 4.3%, with Copom projecting 3.4% for early 2027. The central bank highlighted upside risks such as resilient services inflation and a weaker exchange rate, alongside downside risks like a sharper domestic slowdown or falling commodity prices. Copom emphasized that future policy adjustments may be necessary to maintain price stability. The decision reflects a cautious approach, balancing the need for inflation control with support for economic activity.

周三，美联储将美国利率下调25个基点，使其达到4.0-4.25%，符合预期，Ibovespa指数上涨1.1%，收于145594点。新的预测显示，大多数美联储官员预计今年至少还会再降息两次。与此同时，巴西央行预计将把基准利率维持在15%，这是近二十年来的最高水平，政策制定者表示利率将在很长一段时间内保持稳定。在企业方面，银行上涨（Itaú1.9%，Bradesco 3%），零售商表现优异（Magazine Luiza 5.3%，Casas Bahia 13.4%），巴西国家石油公司上涨0.8%，而淡水河谷微涨0.2%。

The Ibovespa jumped 1.1% to close at 145,594 on Wednesday after the Fed cut US interest rates by 25 bps, bringing them to 4.0–4.25%, in line with expectations. New projections showed most Fed officials foresee at least two more cuts this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s central bank is expected to hold the Selic at 15%, its highest in nearly two decades, with policymakers signaling rates will remain steady for an extended period. On the corporate front, banks rose (Itaú 1.9%, Bradesco 3%), retailers outperformed (Magazine Luiza 5.3%, Casas Bahia 13.4%), Petrobras gained 0.8%, while Vale edged higher 0.2%.

9月份，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率徘徊在5.3左右，为2024年6月以来的最高水平，投资者在等待巴西央行宣布的同时消化了美联储的最新决定。美联储在2025年9月将利率下调了25个基点，主席鲍威尔指出，自4月以来，通胀上升和持续性更强的风险有所缓解，将此举描述为“风险管理”降息，而不是新宽松周期的开始。只有新任命的州长Stephen Miran投票支持更大幅度的50个基点的降息，导致反对意见比市场预期的要少。在国内，巴西央行预计将把塞利克利率维持在15%，并表示将坚持其控制通胀的鹰派立场。最近的数据显示，经济增长放缓，而通货膨胀仍得到控制，这给了央行在外部条件改善的情况下维持紧缩政策的空间。

The Brazilian real hovered around 5.3 per US dollar in September, its strongest level since June 2024, as investors digested the latest US Federal Reserve decision while awaiting the Brazilian Central Bank’s announcement. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, with Chair Powell noting that risks of higher and more persistent inflation have eased since April, framing the move as a ‘risk management’ cut rather than the start of a new easing cycle. Only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran voted for a larger 50 basis point reduction, resulting in fewer dissents than markets had anticipated. Domestically, the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to maintain the Selic rate at 15% and signaled persistence in its hawkish stance to control inflation. Recent data show moderation in economic growth while inflation remains contained, giving the central bank room to sustain a tight policy even as external conditions improve.