巴西IBOVESPA股指 (iBovespa) 加自选

周二，Ibovespa指数微涨0.2%，收于135000点以上，这是该指数连续第七次上涨，也是自9月以来的最高点，因为巴西市场在新的外部顺风与持续的国内逆风之间取得了平衡。华盛顿决定限制和取消累计汽车零部件税，这为工业和矿业巨头的出口前景带来了光明，推动了淡水河谷和大多数主要银行的早期收益，而巴西国家石油公司在生产和销售数据公布前出现了亏损。白宫的关税减免——被商务部长卢特尼克誉为“重大胜利”——引发了新的风险偏好，但市场仍对巴西政策格局的任何变化保持警惕。在国内，投资者准备好迎接央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波罗的讲话和新一轮的企业盈利，因为他们意识到核心通胀率上升和货币政策指导收紧可能会抑制进一步的进展。

The Ibovespa edged 0.2% higher to above the 135,000 level on Tuesday, its seventh straight gain and the highest since September, as Brazil’s market balances fresh external tailwinds against ongoing domestic headwinds. Washington’s decision to cap and roll back cumulative auto-parts levies has brightened export prospects for industrial and mining giants, propelling early gains in Vale and most major banks, while Petrobras traded in the red ahead of production and sales figures. The White House’s tariff relief—hailed as a “major victory” by Commerce Secretary Lutnick—has sparked renewed risk appetite, but the market remains vigilant for any shifts in Brazil’s policy landscape. At home, investors are poised for remarks from Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo and a fresh wave of corporate earnings, mindful that elevated core inflation and tighter monetary-policy guidance could temper further advances.

巴西2025年3月的经常账户赤字为22.5亿美元，低于去年同期的40.8亿美元，但低于预期的29.5亿美元赤字。贸易平衡从2024年3月的64亿美元扩大到76亿美元，出口（+5.3%）增长超过进口（+0.9%）。与此同时，服务赤字从39亿美元扩大到44亿美元，初级收入赤字也从41亿美元增加到58亿美元，而次级收入盈余的变化很小，仅为3亿美元。

Brazil posted a current account deficit of US$2.25 billion in March 2025, down from $4.08 billion in the same month last year, but lower than the expected deficit of $2.95 billion. The trade balance widened to $7.6 billion from $6.4 billion in March 2024, with exports (+5.3%) rising more than imports (+0.9%). At the same time, the services deficit widened from $3.9 billion to $4.4 billion, as did the primary income deficit, from $4.1 billion to $5.8 billion, and the secondary income surplus showed a minimal change of $0.3 billion.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨0.6%，收于135500点以上，将上周的强劲表现延续至9月以来的最高水平，因为美中贸易紧张局势缓和的初步迹象提振了巴西公司的出口前景。在国内，3月份的经常账户赤字扩大到22.45亿美元，这是自去年以来3月份的最大缺口，而59.9亿美元的外国直接投资低于66-116亿美元的预测范围，突显出持续的外部资金紧张。央行最新的Focus调查显示，2025年通胀预期徘徊在5%的目标上限之上，FGV行业信心数据表明工厂订单疲软，尽管州长Galípolo采取了宽松的立场，但近期降息的希望有所减弱。在各个名字中，WEG、桑坦德银行、B3、巴西航空工业公司和CPFL Energia领涨，各上涨1%至1.7%。

The Ibovespa rose 0.6% to above the 135,500 level on Monday, extending the previous week’s strong performance to its highest level since September—as tentative signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions bolstered export prospects for Brazilian firms. Domestically, March’s current-account deficit widened to US$2.245 billion—the largest March shortfall since last year—while foreign direct investment of US$5.99 billion fell short of the US$6.6–11.6 billion forecast range, underscoring persistent external funding strains. The central bank’s latest Focus survey shows 2025 inflation expectations hovering above the 5 % target ceiling, and FGV industry confidence data point to sluggish factory orders, tempering hopes for near-term rate cuts despite Governor Galípolo’s accommodative stance. Among individual names, WEG, Banco Santander, B3, Embraer and CPFL Energia led the advance, each climbing between 1 % and 1.7 %.

巴西央行行长强调数据驱动的紧缩周期方法。巴西央行行长周一强调了政策制定者在紧缩周期中依赖数据的立场，强调需要对货币政策在不确定性加剧的情况下取得预期效果抱有信心。

Brazil's central bank chief stresses data-driven approach to tightening cycle.Brazil's central bank head stressed on Monday the data-dependent stance of policymakers in their tightening cycle, emphasizing the need for confidence that monetary policy is achieving the desired effects amid heightened uncertainties.