巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

巴基斯坦批发价格在2025年4月同比下降2.2%，比上个月的1.6%进一步下滑。这标志着批发价格连续第三个交易日下跌，也是该序列中跌幅最大的一个交易日，因为农业、林业和渔业（-7.8%对3月份的-6.3%）以及其他可运输商品（-4.1%对-3.2%）的通货紧缩加剧。此外，食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品（6.3%对7.0%）以及金属制品、机械和设备（2.0%对2.1%）的价格有所回落。与此同时，矿石/矿产、电力、天然气和水的通缩放缓（-8.1%对-8.8%）。与上月相比，2025年4月批发价格上涨1.3%。

Wholesale prices in Pakistan fell 2.2% year-on-year in April 2025, slipping further from a 1.6% decrease in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive session of falling wholesale prices and the sharpest in the sequence, as deflation worsened for agriculture forestry and fishery (-7.8% vs -6.3% in March), and other transportable goods (-4.1%vs -3.2%). In addition, prices eased for food, beverages, tobacco, textiles and leather products (6.3% vs 7.0%) and metal products, machinery and equipment (2.0% vs 2.1%). Meanwhile, deflation slowed for ores/minerals, electricity, gas and water (-8.1%vs -8.8%). Compared to the previous month, wholesale prices rose 1.3% in April 2025.

巴基斯坦的年通货膨胀率连续第六个月从上个月的0.7%降至2025年4月的0.3%。这是自1968年8月以来的最低水平，因为交通（-3.9%对3月的-1.2%）、住房和公用事业（-2.6%对-2.2%）的通货紧缩加剧。此外，服装和鞋类（9.1%对13.5%）和教育（10.9%对11.9%）的价格有所放缓。与此同时，酒精饮料和烟草（7.9%对7.5%）、家具和家用设备维护（4.0%对3.7%）、健康（14.2%对13.8%）、娱乐和文化（7.8%对7.7%）以及杂项商品和服务（13.8%对13.4%）的价格加速上涨。此外，食品和非酒精饮料的价格下跌速度较慢（-4.8%对-5.1%），尤其是易腐食品（-26.7%）。按月度计算，2025年4月消费者价格下跌0.8%，扭转了前一个月0.9%的涨幅。

The annual inflation rate in Pakistan eased for the sixth consecutive month to 0.3% in April 2025 from 0.7% in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since August 1968, as deflation worsened for transport (-3.9% vs -1.2% in March) and housing and utilities (-2.6% vs -2.2%). Moreover, prices slowed for clothing and footwear (9.1% vs 13.5%) and education (10.9% vs 11.9%). Meanwhile, prices accelerated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (7.9% vs 7.5%), furnishing and household equipment maintenance (4.0% vs 3.7%), health (14.2% vs 13.8%), recreation and culture (7.8% vs 7.7%), and miscellaneous goods and services (13.8% vs 13.4%). In addition, prices fell at a softer pace for food & non-alcoholic beverages (-4.8% vs -5.1%), particularly perishable food items (-26.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 0.8% in April 2025, reversing a 0.9% rise in the previous month.

惠誉评级于2025年4月15日将巴基斯坦的长期外币发行人违约评级从“CCC+”上调至“B-”，前景稳定，理由是财政整顿有所改善，外部账户趋于稳定，宏观经济政策管理更加有力。该机构强调，人们对巴基斯坦在国际货币基金组织支持的改革计划下保持进展的能力越来越有信心，包括减少财政赤字和改善政策纪律的努力。全球油价下跌也缓解了外部账户的压力。惠誉预计，紧缩的经济政策将支持外汇储备的复苏，并管理巨大的外部融资需求。尽管全球贸易紧张局势带来了风险，但巴基斯坦对出口和外部市场融资的低依赖提供了一些保护。标准普尔对巴基斯坦的信用评级为CCC+，前景稳定。穆迪对巴基斯坦的信用评级最后被定为Caa2，前景乐观。

Fitch Ratings upgraded Pakistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'B-' from 'CCC+' on April 15, 2025, with a stable outlook, citing improved fiscal consolidation, a stabilizing external account, and stronger macroeconomic policy management. The agency highlighted increased confidence in Pakistan’s ability to maintain progress under its IMF-supported reform program, including efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit and improve policy discipline. Lower global oil prices have also eased pressure on the external account. Fitch expects tight economic policies to support reserve recovery and manage large external financing needs. While global trade tensions pose risks, Pakistan’s low reliance on exports and external market financing offers some protection. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Pakistan stands at CCC+ with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for Pakistan was last set at Caa2 with positive outlook.

2025年3月，巴基斯坦的汇款达到创纪录的41亿美元，年增长率为37%，这表明在国际货币基金组织的支持下，经济正在复苏。主要来源是沙特阿拉伯（9.87亿美元）、阿联酋（8.42亿美元），英国（6.84亿美元）和美国（4.2亿美元）。强劲的汇款增长反映出，随着巴基斯坦在2022年避免了国际货币基金组织贷款违约后趋于稳定，人们的信心有所提高。央行将25财年的汇款预测从360亿美元上调至380亿美元，并预计到6月外汇储备将达到140亿美元。美元需求的减少和对非正式货币交易的打击有助于稳定卢比，过去一年仅下跌0.85%。该国本财政年度迄今还报告了经常账户盈余。25财年7月至3月的汇款总额从去年同期的210亿美元增长了33%，达到280亿美元。

Pakistan’s remittances hit a record $4.1 billion in March 2025, a 37% yearly increase, signaling economic recovery helped by IMF support. Key sources were Saudi Arabia ($987 million), UAE ($842 million), UK ($684 million), and the US ($420 million). Strong remittance growth reflects improved confidence as Pakistan stabilizes after avoiding default in 2022 with IMF loans. The central bank raised its remittance forecast for FY25 to $38 billion (from $36 billion) and expects forex reserves to reach $14 billion by June. Reduced dollar demand and a crackdown on informal currency trading have helped steady the rupee, down just 0.85% over the past year. The country also reported a current account surplus so far this fiscal year. Total remittances for July–March FY25 are up 33% to $28 billion from $21 billion in the same period last year.