巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

巴基斯坦的消费者信心指数从上个月的37.7上升到2025年10月的40.0，这是10个月来的最低水平。对当前经济状况（40.6比9月的37.5）、预期经济状况（39.4比37.8）和购买耐用品的感知适宜性（35.0比33.7）的情绪有所改善。然而，消费者对未来收入的预期减弱（45.8比49.0）。此外，对未来六个月失业的担忧加剧（70.5比70.1）。与此同时，通胀预期下降（21.2比22.5），消费者对价格上涨的预期保持不变（70.0）。

The consumer confidence indicator in Pakistan rose to 40.0 in October 2025, up from 37.7 in the previous month, which was the lowest level in 10 months. Sentiment improved regarding current economic conditions (40.6 vs 37.5 in September), expected economic conditions (39.4 vs 37.8), and the perceived suitability of purchasing durable goods (35.0 vs 33.7). However, consumer expectations for future income weakened (45.8 vs 49.0). Also, concerns about unemployment over the next six months accelerated (70.5 vs. 70.1). Meanwhile, inflation expectations declined (21.2 vs 22.5), with higher consumers expecting higher prices were unchanged (at 70.0).

2025年10月，巴基斯坦批发价格同比上涨1.1%，这是自去年12月以来的最大涨幅，此前9月份上涨了0.59%。食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品的成本增长更快（9月份为7.34%对6.98%），而矿石、矿产、电力、天然气和水（-2.85%对-4.97%）以及其他可运输商品（-0.41%对-1.33%）的价格跌幅较小。另一方面，金属制品、机械和设备的通货膨胀率略有放缓（1.08%对1.18%），而农业、林业和渔业的价格下降幅度更大（-2.10%对-1.66%）。与上月相比，批发价格上涨了0.51%。

Wholesale prices in Pakistan were up 1.1% year-on-year in October 2025, the biggest rise since December last year, after a 0.59% gain in September. Faster increases were seen in cost for food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, and leather products (7.34% vs. 6.98% in September) while prices fell less for ores, minerals, electricity, gas, and water (-2.85% vs. -4.97%), and other transportable goods (-0.41% vs. -1.33%). On the other hand, inflation slowed slightly for metal products, machinery, and equipment (1.08% vs. 1.18%) while prices declined more for agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-2.10% vs. -1.66%). Compared to the previous month, wholesale prices rose 0.51%.

巴基斯坦的年通货膨胀率在2025年10月加速至6.2%，为一年来的最高水平，高于9月份的5.6%。自2024年4月以来，粮食价格上涨幅度最大（5.6%对9月的5%），反映了严重洪水和与阿富汗边境关闭的影响，冲突扰乱了贸易，加剧了粮食短缺。价格涨幅最大的是西红柿（126.96%）、糖（34.83%）、黄油（29.63%）、小麦（22.56%）、蜂蜜（17.78%）、小麦粉（15.69%）。住房和公用事业（4.2%对3.7%）、交通（6.7%对4.2%）、服装和鞋类（8.1%对8.0%）以及杂项商品和服务（18.2%对14.9%）的通货膨胀也在加速。与此同时，餐馆和酒店的通货膨胀率保持稳定（6.1%），家具和家用设备维护的通货膨胀率略有放缓（4%对4.1%），而娱乐和文化的价格则有所下降（-3.7%对-2.7%）。按月计算，消费者价格上涨1.8%，其中易腐食品成本飙升14.9%。

Pakistan’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.2% in October 2025, the highest level in a year, up from 5.6% in September. Food prices rose the most since since April 2024 (5.6% vs 5% in September), reflecting the impact of severe floods and border closures with Afghanistan following clashes that disrupted trade and worsened food shortages. The sharpest price increases were recorded for tomatoes (126.96%), sugar (34.83%), butter (29.63%), wheat (22.56%), honey (17.78%), wheat flour (15.69%). Inflation also accelerated for housing and utilities (4.2% vs 3.7%), transport (6.7% vs 4.2%), clothing and footwear (8.1% vs 8.0%), and miscellaneous goods and services (18.2% vs 14.9%). Meanwhile, inflation was steady for restaurants and hotels (6.1%) and slowed slightly for furnishing and household equipment maintenance (4% vs 4.1%), while prices declined for recreation and culture (-3.7% vs -2.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.8%, led by a 14.9% surge in perishable food costs.

巴基斯坦国家银行在10月份将基准政策利率稳定在11%，这是连续第四次会议没有变化，因为货币政策委员会认为这一立场适合维持价格稳定和支持可持续增长。受洪水相关作物损失的推动，9月份的整体通胀率从8月份的3.6%飙升至5.6%，但仍在央行的5-7%目标范围内。近期与阿富汗边境中断的潜在影响预计将反映在即将公布的通胀数据中。2025财年，实际国内生产总值预计将增长3.25-4.25%，这得益于关键部门的稳定增长、国内需求的增长以及私人投资和基础设施项目的持续发展。银行业流动性适度扩张，M2和私营部门信贷稳步增长。

The State Bank of Pakistan kept its benchmark policy rate steady at 11% in October, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change, as the Monetary Policy Committee deemed the stance appropriate to maintain price stability and support sustainable growth. Headline inflation surged to 5.6% year-on-year in September from 3.6% in August, driven by flood-related crop damage, yet remained within the central bank’s 5–7% target range. Potential effects from recent border disruptions with Afghanistan are expected to be reflected in upcoming inflation readings. For FY2025, real GDP is projected to expand 3.25–4.25%, underpinned by stable to positive growth in key sectors, rising domestic demand, and continued private investment and infrastructure projects. Banking sector liquidity saw moderate expansion, with M2 and private sector credit increasing steadily.