巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

2025年6月，巴基斯坦批发价格同比上涨0.58%，高于上个月的0.36%，这是由于食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品的涨幅更大（8.6%对7.9%），以及其他可运输商品的跌幅放缓（-0.8%对-3.5%）。然而，农业、林业和渔业（-1.6%对-0.4%）以及矿产、电力、天然气和水（-8.4%对-7.3%）的通货紧缩加剧，部分抵消了这一增长，而金属制品、机械和设备的价格增长放缓（1.0%对2.7%）。6月份批发价格环比上涨0.59%，5月份持平。

Pakistan’s wholesale prices rose by 0.58% year-on-year in June 2025, accelerating from 0.36% in the previous month, driven by stronger gains in food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, and leather products (8.6% vs. 7.9%), alongside a slower decline in other transportable goods (-0.8% vs. -3.5%). However, the increase was partly offset by deeper deflation in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-1.6% vs. -0.4%) and minerals, electricity, gas, and water (-8.4% vs. -7.3%), while price growth slowed in metal products, machinery, and equipment (1.0% vs. 2.7%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.59% in June, following a flat reading in May.

巴基斯坦6月份的年通货膨胀率从上个月的3.5%降至3.2%，与财政部预测的3%-4%大致一致。减速的原因是食品和非酒精饮料（2.6%对3.1%）、服装和鞋类（9.0%对9.7%）、酒精饮料和烟草（5.1%对7.9%）的价格上涨放缓，同时住房和公用事业的价格进一步下跌（-3.3%对-2.5%），娱乐和文化的通缩逆转（-1.0%对1.3%）。相比之下，餐馆和酒店的通货膨胀加速（8.4%对7.4%），运输业的通货膨胀反弹（0.6%对-2.5%）。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.2%，扭转了前一个月0.2%的跌幅。

Pakistan’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.2% in June from 3.5% in the previous month, broadly in line with the Finance Ministry’s projection of 3%–4%. The deceleration was driven by slower price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.6% vs. 3.1%), clothing and footwear (9.0% vs. 9.7%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (5.1% vs. 7.9%), alongside a deeper price decline in housing and utilities (-3.3% vs. -2.5%) and a reversal to deflation in recreation and culture (-1.0% vs. 1.3%). In contrast, inflation accelerated in restaurants and hotels (8.4% vs. 7.4%) and rebounded in transport (0.6% vs. -2.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% in June, reversing a 0.2% drop in the prior month.

巴基斯坦央行在5月会议上意外降息100个基点后，在6月会议上将关键利率稳定在11%，符合预期。这一决定是在以色列和伊朗之间持续的冲突以及全球油价波动的情况下做出的，这给通货膨胀增加了上行风险。该行货币政策委员会（MPC）在宣布这一决定的一份声明中表示，预计通胀近期会出现一些波动，预计通胀将逐渐上升并稳定在5-7%的目标范围内。MPC表示：“然而，这一前景仍受到多种风险的影响，这些风险来自区域地缘政治冲突、石油和其他大宗商品价格波动以及国内能源价格调整的时间和幅度等潜在的供应链中断。”。5月份，整体通胀率从4月份的近60年低点0.3%升至3.5%的五个月高点，超过了财政部预测的1.5%-2%。

The central bank of Pakistan kept its key interest rate steady at 11% during its June meeting, in line with expectations, after a surprise 100 bps cut in its May meeting. The decision came amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, and volatile global oil prices, which have added upside risks to inflation. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement announcing the decision that it expected some near-term volatility in inflation, which is projected to gradually edge up and stabilize within the 5–7% target range. “This outlook, however, remains subject to multiple risks emanating from potential supply-chain disruptions from regional geopolitical conflicts, volatility in oil and other commodity prices, and the timing and magnitude of domestic energy price adjustments,” the MPC said. Headline inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.5% in May, up from a near six-decade low of 0.3% in April, exceeding the finance ministry’s projection of 1.5%–2%.

巴基斯坦证券交易所的基准KSE-100指数在6月份继续保持上涨势头，在投资者对该国经济和金融前景日益乐观的推动下，交易量突破121400大关，创下历史新高。政府最近批准了1万亿巴基斯坦卢比的联邦发展预算，并为即将到来的财政年度设定了4.2%的雄心勃勃的经济增长目标。此外，亚行批准了一项旨在加强财政可持续性的8亿美元计划，央行已经将利率减半至11%。2024年，KSE-100指数飙升约84%，今年迄今已上涨约4%。然而，市场在5月初遭遇了短暂但严重的挫折，当时地缘政治紧张局势在空袭和飞机被击落后急剧升级，促使印度和巴基斯坦威胁要报复，这成为两国几十年来最严重的冲突。

The Pakistan Stock Exchange’s benchmark KSE-100 Index continued its upward momentum in June, breaking new record levels by trading above the 121,400 mark, driven by growing investor optimism over the country’s economic and financial outlook. The government recently approved a PKR 1 trillion federal development budget and set an ambitious economic growth target of 4.2% for the upcoming fiscal year. In addition, the ADB sanctioned an $800 million program aimed at strengthening fiscal sustainability and the central bank has already cut the interest rate by half to 11%. In 2024, the KSE-100 Index surged by approximately 84%, and has already gained around 4% so far this year. However, the market faced a brief but sharp setback in early May, when geopolitical tensions escalated dramatically following airstrikes and the downing of aircraft, prompting both India and Pakistan to threaten retaliation in what became the most serious conflict between the two nations in decades.