澳大利亚ASX200指数 (ASX200) 加自选

欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元试图再次反弹。美元正试图对抗大量的抛售压力，因为外汇世界一直在试图打破它。在这一点上，市场似乎正在试图弄清楚下一步行动的来源和方向。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Trying to Rally Again.The US dollar is trying to fight against a lot of the selling pressures, as the Forex world has been trying to break it down. At this point, the markets look as if they are trying to sort out where the next move is coming from, and where it's going.

澳元/日元反弹至96.00，接近五个月高点。澳元/日元在前一交易日小幅下跌后上涨，周四欧洲时间交易在95.90左右。本周早些时候，澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）出人意料地决定将官方现金利率（OCR）维持在3.85%，而此前人们高度预期将下调25个基点，澳元（AUD）兑其他货币继续获得支撑，货币交叉升值。

AUD/JPY rebounds toward 96.00 near five-month highs.AUD/JPY rises after registering mild losses in the previous session, trading around 95.90 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues gaining support against its peers after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.85% earlier this week, against a highly expected 25 basis point cut.

周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.28%左右，从上一交易日创下的五周高点回落。美联储6月会议纪要显示，大多数政策制定者认为今年降息是合适的，随后美国债券收益率也出现了类似的下跌。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行本周早些时候将现金利率稳定在3.85%，这让市场感到惊讶，因为市场几乎完全消化了25个基点的降息。尽管澳大利亚储备银行保持谨慎立场，但它承认通胀风险更加平衡，似乎在等待7月底公布的第二季度CPI报告，然后再做出决定。在做出这一决定后，市场预期发生了变化，现在认为央行在8月份的会议上将利率降至3.60%的可能性为85%。

Australia's 10-year government bond yield dropped to around 4.28% on Thursday, pulling back from an over five-week high reached in the previous session. The decline followed a similar move in US bond yields after the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers believed it would be appropriate to lower rates this year. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier this week held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had nearly fully priced in a 25bps cut. While the RBA maintained a cautious stance, it acknowledged that the risks to inflation were more balanced and appeared to be waiting for the second-quarter CPI report, due at the end of July, before deciding. Following the decision, market expectations shifted, now pricing in an 85% probability that the central bank will cut rates to 3.60% at its August meeting.

周四，澳元走强至0.654美元以上，标志着连续第三个交易日上涨，因为特朗普新宣布的关税推动铜价飙升，提振了对大宗商品挂钩货币的需求。自8月1日起，对美国所有铜进口征收50%的关税，导致铜价大幅上涨。作为世界上最大的铜出口国之一，澳大利亚将受益，由于其与大宗商品的紧密联系，价格上涨将支撑澳元。额外的支持来自铁矿石和黄金的上涨，这也提振了对资源敏感的货币。在政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行本周早些时候出人意料地决定维持利率，继续提供支持。州长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）指出，单位劳动力成本上升和生产率疲软带来的持续通胀风险，并警告价格压力可能超过预期。副州长Andrew Hauser还指出，全球不确定性不断上升，关税预计将严重影响经济增长。

The Australian dollar strengthened to above $0.654 on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains, as a surge in copper prices—driven by Trump’s newly announced tariffs—boosted demand for the commodity-linked currency. A 50% levy on all US copper imports, set to take effect August 1, has sent copper prices sharply higher. As one of the world’s top copper exporters, Australia stands to benefit, with higher prices supporting the Aussie due to its strong commodity ties. Additional backing came from gains in iron ore and gold, which also lifted resource-sensitive currencies. On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise decision to hold rates earlier this week continued to offer support. Governor Michele Bullock flagged ongoing inflation risks from elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity, warning price pressures could exceed forecasts. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also noted rising global uncertainty, with tariffs expected to weigh heavily on growth.