罗马尼亚布加勒斯特指数 (BET) 加自选

在激烈的政治不确定性中，罗马尼亚央行在2025年5月16日连续第六次会议将关键利率稳定在6.5%。这一决定符合预期，此前一位极右翼候选人在总统选举中的强势表现导致首相辞职，引发了资本外流和市场波动。央行指出，围绕通胀预测的“高度不确定性”，并指出最近的资金外流扰乱了流动性，提高了利率，并对货币造成了压力。它强调迫切需要一个可信的财政整顿计划来管理罗马尼亚的巨额外部赤字，并确保公共和私营部门的稳定融资。与此同时，受基数效应和电价上限结束的影响，预计通货膨胀将在2025年第三季度之前保持波动。该行预计，通胀率仅在2026年初降至3.5%的目标区间上限以下，其路径比之前预测的要慢。

Romania’s central bank kept its key interest rate steady at 6.5% for the sixth straight meeting on May 16, 2025, amid intense political uncertainty. The decision, in line with expectations, came after a far-right candidate’s strong showing in the presidential election led to the prime minister's resignation, sparking capital outflows and market volatility. The central bank cited "extremely high uncertainty" surrounding inflation forecasts and noted that the recent outflows had disrupted liquidity, raised interest rates, and pressured the currency. It stressed the urgent need for a credible fiscal consolidation plan to manage Romania's large external deficit and ensure stable financing for both public and private sectors. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain volatile until Q3 2025, influenced by base effects and the end of electricity price caps. The bank sees inflation falling below the 3.5% upper target band only in early 2026, following a slower path than previously forecast.