法国CAC40指数 (CAC40) 加自选

法国10年期政府债券收益率微升至3.37%，接近7月25日达到的3.443%的三个月高点，因为市场根据最近的经济数据重新评估了利率前景。欧元区经济第二季度温和增长0.1%，较第一季度的0.6%大幅下降，但仍略高于无增长的预测。法国的国内生产总值增长了0.3%，超过了市场预期的0.1%的增长，这主要是由库存积累推动的。与此同时，美国经济继续表现强劲，第二季度GDP数据好于预期，7月份私人就业强劲增长。再加上8月1日生效的新关税，数据表明，尽管特朗普总统再次呼吁降息，但美联储可能会保持搁置。在欧洲，对欧洲央行降息的预期被推迟了，市场现在认为，到2026年3月降息25个基点的可能性为90%，而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。

France’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to 3.37%, inching closer to the three-month high of 3.443% reached on July 25, as markets reassessed the outlook for interest rates in light of recent economic data. The Eurozone economy posted modest growth of 0.1% in Q2, down sharply from 0.6% in Q1 but still slightly above forecasts for no growth. France's GDP expanded by 0.3%, beating market expectations of 0.1% growth, driven mainly by inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the US economy continued to show strength, with better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures and robust private job gains in July. Combined with new tariffs taking effect on August 1, the data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold, despite renewed calls from President Trump for rate cuts. In Europe, expectations for ECB rate reductions have been delayed, with markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by March 2026, while the odds of a cut in December have dropped to 30%.

CAC 40指数周三微涨0.2%，至7871点，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，投资者消化了新一批企业收益以及美中贸易谈判的最新进展。达能以6.1%的涨幅领涨该指数，在超过第二季度销售预期后达到一个月高点。与此同时，开云集团尽管报告收入下降，但仍上涨了4.5%，因为其首席财务官表示，美国市场即将提价以抵消关税的影响。欧莱雅也上涨了2.1%，尽管其季度销售额低于预期。不利的一面是，爱马仕在业绩未达到预期后暴跌3.1%。与此同时，投资者的注意力仍然集中在最近结束的美中贸易谈判上。在讨论中，两个经济体都表示支持延长90天的关税休战，尽管财政部长贝森特指出，唐纳德·特朗普总统对贸易决定拥有最终发言权，包括任何延长休战的决定。

The CAC 40 edged up by 0.2% to 7,871 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as investors digested a fresh batch of corporate earnings alongside the latest developments in US-China trade negotiations. Danone led the index with a 6.1% surge, reaching a one-month high after surpassing Q2 sales expectations. At the same time, Kering climbed 4.5% despite reporting a decline in revenue, as its CFO indicated upcoming price increases in the US market to counteract the impact of tariffs. L'Oréal also advanced 2.1%, even though its quarterly sales fell short of forecasts. On the downside, Hermès plunged 3.1% after its results failed to meet expectations. Meanwhile, investor attention remained fixed on the recently concluded US-China trade talks. During the discussions, both economies showed support for extending the 90-day tariff truce, though Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that President Donald Trump holds final say on trade decisions, including any extension of the truce.

根据初步估计，法国经济在2025年第二季度增长了0.3%，高于第一季度的0.1%，超过了市场预期的0.1%。这标志着自2024年第三季度以来最强劲的扩张，主要是由于库存积累增加了0.5个百分点。相比之下，最终国内需求持平，净贸易拖累增长。家庭消费小幅上涨0.1%，从第一季度0.3%的下降中反弹，这得益于复活节假期和有利天气推动的商品消费增加以及服务业，特别是住宿和餐饮业的回升。固定投资进一步收缩，在第一季度下降0.1%后，由于建筑业持续疲软和制成品GFCF下降，固定投资进一步下降0.3%。出口增长0.2%（第一季度为-1.1%），因为公司在即将征收关税之前加快了对美国的发货。受炼油活动大幅反弹的推动，进口增长0.8%（第一季度为0.3%）。按年度计算，国内生产总值增长0.7%，高于第一季度的0.6%。

The French economy grew by 0.3% in Q2 2025, up from 0.1% in Q1 and surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, according to flash estimates. This marked the strongest expansion since Q3 2024, largely driven by a 0.5 percentage point boost from inventory accumulation. In contrast, final domestic demand was flat, and net trade dragged on growth. Household consumption edged up 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.3% decline in Q1, supported by increased goods consumption—helped by the Easter holidays and favorable weather—and a pickup in services, particularly in accommodation and catering. Fixed investment contracted further, falling 0.3% after a 0.1% decline in Q1, weighed down by persistent weakness in construction and a drop in GFCF in manufactured goods. Exports rose 0.2% (vs -1.1% in Q1) as firms accelerated shipments to the US ahead of impending tariffs. Imports jumped 0.8% (vs 0.3% in Q1), driven by a sharp rebound in refining activity. On an annual basis, GDP rose 0.7%, up from 0.6% in Q1.

2025年6月，法国家庭消费环比增长0.6%，高于前一个月向下修正的0.1%的增长，并打破了市场预期的0.1%的下降。最新数据还标志着家庭支出连续第三个月增长，主要受耐用品推动，制成品支出（5月份为-0.4%，5月份为0.5%）反弹。此外，能源消耗显著增加（3.5%对2.1%），主要是由于电力支出增加。与此同时，由于农产品支出持续下降，食品消费进一步下降（-0.9%对5月份的-0.3%）。按年度计算，2025年6月家庭支出增长了0.9%。

Household consumption in France rose by 0.6% month-on-month in June 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in the previous month and defying market expectations of 0.1% decline. The latest figure also marked the third consecutive month of increasing household expenditures, as spending on manufactured goods (0.5% vs -0.4% in May) rebounded, mainly driven by durable goods. Moreover, energy consumption increased notably (3.5% vs 2.1%), primarily due to higher electricity expenditures. Meanwhile, food consumption declined further (-0.9% vs -0.3% in May), weighed down by a continued fall in agri-food product expenditures. On an annual basis, household spending grew by 0.9% in June 2025.