欧洲斯托克斯波动指数 (EuroStoxxVolatilityIndex) 加自选

据初步估计，2025年7月，德国的年通货膨胀率稳定在2%，与6月持平，略高于市场对放缓至1.9%的预期。食品价格上涨幅度更大（2.2%对2%），而能源成本下降幅度略小（-3.4%对-3.5%），抵消了服务通胀放缓的影响，服务通胀从3.3%降至3.1%的三年低点。与上月相比，CPI上涨0.3%，从6月份的持平反弹，高于0.2%的预测。使用欧盟协调指数，年通货膨胀率实际上从2%降至1.8%，而预期为1.9%。在月度水平上，价格上涨了0.4%，高于6月份的0.1%，与预测相符。

Germany’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2% in July 2025, unchanged from June and slightly above market expectations of a slowdown to 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates. Food prices rose more sharply (2.2% vs 2%), while energy costs declined slightly less (-3.4% vs -3.5%), offsetting a slowdown in service inflation, which eased to a three-year low of 3.1% from 3.3%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, rebounding from a flat reading in June and above forecasts of 0.2%. Using the EU-harmonised index, the annual inflation rate actually fell to 1.8% from 2% and compared to expectations of 1.9%. On the monthly level, prices were up 0.4%, above 0.1% in June and in line with forecasts.

2025年6月，意大利工业生产者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，高于5月份的1.8%。国内市场价格增长加快，达到3.9%，而前一个月为2.7%。相比之下，国外市场的价格保持不变，为0.3%。在国外市场，欧元区的价格上涨幅度更大（5月份为0.8%对0.5%），而非欧元区的房价下跌（-0.4%对0.0%）。按月计算，6月份生产者价格指数上涨1.5%，从5月份0.7%的跌幅反弹。

Industrial producer prices in Italy rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June 2025, up from a 1.8% increase in May. Price growth accelerated in the domestic market, reaching 3.9% compared to 2.7% in the previous month. In contrast, prices in the foreign market remained unchanged at 0.3%. Within the foreign market, prices rose more in the Euro area (0.8% vs 0.5% in May), while they declined in the non-Euro area (-0.4% vs 0.0%). On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 1.5% in June, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in May.

法国10年期政府债券收益率徘徊在3.3%左右，交易员继续评估货币和经济前景。市场参与者已经降低了对欧洲央行今年降息25个基点的预期，掉期市场目前定价的可能性不到50%。在情绪转变之前，西班牙的通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，德国几个州的物价温和上涨，法国和意大利的通货膨胀稳定。在更广泛的欧元区，第二季度GDP仅增长了0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓，但略好于停滞的预测。数据显示了明显的地区差异：德国和意大利都出现了0.1%的收缩，而法国和西班牙则略有增长。与此同时，在贸易方面，投资者对最近宣布的美国-欧盟贸易协定的担忧仍然很高，该协定被广泛认为有利于美国。

France's 10-year government bond yield hovered around 3.3% as traders continued to assess the monetary and economic outlook. Market participants have scaled back expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB this year, with swap markets now pricing in less than a 50% probability. The shift in sentiment follows a second consecutive monthly rise in inflation in Spain, modest price increases in several German states, and stable inflation in France and Italy. In the broader Eurozone, GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the second quarter—a sharp slowdown from 0.6% in Q1, but slightly better than forecasts of stagnation. The data revealed notable regional disparities: Germany and Italy both saw contractions of 0.1%, while France and Spain posted modest gains. Meanwhile, on the trade front, investor concerns remain elevated over the recently announced U.S.–EU trade agreement, which is widely perceived as favoring the United States.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率徘徊在3.5%左右，交易员继续评估货币和经济前景。市场参与者降低了对欧洲央行今年降息25个基点的预期，掉期市场现在认为此举的可能性不到50%。此前，西班牙的通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，德国几个州的物价温和上涨，法国和意大利的通货膨胀稳定。与此同时，欧元区第二季度GDP仅增长0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比明显放缓，但仍略好于无增长的预测。然而，数据突显了地区差异：德国和意大利都出现了0.1%的收缩，而法国和西班牙则出现了温和的扩张。在贸易方面，投资者对最近宣布的美国-欧盟贸易协定的担忧仍然很高，该协定被广泛认为对美国的利益不成比例。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 3.5% as traders continued to evaluate the monetary and economic outlook. Market participants have reduced expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB this year, with swap markets now assigning less than a 50% probability to such a move. This shift follows a second consecutive monthly increase in inflation in Spain, modest price rises in several German states, and steady inflation in both France and Italy. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP grew by just 0.1% in the second quarter, a marked slowdown from 0.6% in Q1—but still slightly better than forecasts of no growth. However, the data highlighted regional divergences: Germany and Italy both recorded contractions of 0.1%, while France and Spain posted modest expansions. On the trade front, investor concerns remain elevated over the recently announced US–EU trade agreement, which is widely viewed as disproportionately benefiting the United States.