爱尔兰综合指数 (ISEQ) 加自选

惠誉评级确认爱尔兰的长期外汇评级为“AA”，前景稳定，理由是尽管存在美国政策不确定性带来的风险，但信贷基本面强劲。该评级得到了强有力的机构和惠誉评级主权国家中人均GDP第二高的支持，即使在调整了跨国企业（MNE）对国民账户数据的巨大影响后也是如此。爱尔兰面临着美国贸易和税收政策的不确定性，因为其33%的商品出口是针对美国的。2025年上半年，整体GDP增长了18.2%，反映了在关税之前对美国的前期出口。惠誉表示：“我们预计2025年整体GDP将增长约10%，强劲的跨国公司出口将带来上行风险，而国内需求仍将保持稳定。”。标普对爱尔兰的信用评级为“AA”，前景乐观。穆迪对爱尔兰的信用评级最后被定为“Aa3”，前景乐观，而DBRS对爱尔兰的信贷评级最后被报告为“AA”，前景稳定。

Fitch Ratings affirmed Ireland’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘AA’ with a stable outlook, citing strong credit fundamentals despite risks stemming from US policy uncertainty. The rating is supported by strong institutions and the 2nd-highest GDP per capita among Fitch-rated sovereigns, even after adjusting for the large impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on national accounts data. Ireland faces uncertainty regarding US trade and tax policies, as 33% of its goods exports were directed to the US. Headline GDP rose 18.2% in H1 2025, reflecting front-loaded exports to the US ahead of tariffs. “We forecast around 10% headline GDP growth in 2025, with upside risks from strong MNE exports, while domestic demand remains solid,” Fitch said. S&P’s credit rating for Ireland stands at ‘AA’ with a positive outlook. Moody’s credit rating for Ireland was last set at ‘Aa3’ with a positive outlook, while DBRS’s credit rating for Ireland was last reported at ‘AA’ with a stable outlook.

经季节性调整的爱尔兰失业率从上个月向上修正的5.1%降至2025年10月的5%。失业人数环比减少1700人，达到147400人。按性别划分，男性失业率从9月份修订后的5.1%降至5%，而女性失业率保持在5%不变。从年龄组来看，15-24岁人群的失业率从上个月修正后的13.3%小幅上升至13.4%。对于25-74岁的人来说，失业率从上个月的3.9%略微降至3.8%。相比之下，2024年10月经季节性调整的失业率为4.2%。

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Ireland edged down to 5% in October 2025, from an upwardly revised 5.1% in the previous month. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 1,700 month-on-month, reaching 147,400. By gender, the unemployment rate for males ticked lower to 5% from a revised 5.1% in September, while the rate for females remained unchanged at 5%. Looking at age groups, the unemployment rate for people aged 15–24 years rose slightly to 13.4% from a revised 13.3% in the prior month. For those aged 25–74 years, the unemployment rate fell marginally to 3.8% from 3.9% in the previous month. By comparison, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2% in October 2024.

AIB爱尔兰服务业采购经理人指数从9月份的56.4攀升至2025年10月的57.4，标志着该行业自2024年12月以来的最快扩张，因为活动和新订单都以十个月来的最快速度增长。尽管商业活动和新订单急剧增加，但服务提供商仅适度提高了人员配置水平，而且幅度小于上个月。科技、媒体和电信行业增长最快，而交通、旅游和休闲行业则连续第八个月下降，尽管降幅很小。在价格方面，投入成本通胀有所缓解。与此同时，产出成本通胀连续第三个月加速，达到5月以来的最快速度，所有行业都出现了增长。展望未来，由于持续的市场不确定性，商业情绪降至四个月低点。

The AIB Ireland Services PMI climbed to 57.4 in October 2025, up from 56.4 in September, marking the fastest expansion in the sector since December 2024, as both activity and new orders rose at the quickest rates in ten months. Despite the sharp increases in business activity and new orders, service providers raised staffing levels only modestly, and to a smaller extent than in the previous month. The technology, media, and telecoms sector recorded the fastest expansion, while transport, tourism, and leisure posted an eighth consecutive monthly decline, though it was only fractional. On prices, input cost inflation eased. Meanwhile, output cost inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month, reaching its fastest pace since May, with all sectors recording increases. Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened to a four-month low amid ongoing market uncertainty.

AIB爱尔兰制造业采购经理人指数从9月份的51.8降至2025年10月的50.9，标志着10个月来最弱的改善。由于需求疲软和积压减少抑制了生产，产量停滞不前，而在对欧洲的出口销售大幅下降的情况下，新业务仅略有增长。就业增长持续了11个月，但随着企业面临技能短缺，就业增长有所放缓。采购活动略有增加，但库存减少反映了改善现金流的努力。在价格方面，由于原材料成本下降和竞争加剧，投入成本通胀放缓至17个月低点，产出价格涨幅为2024年5月以来最疲软。由于运输延误，供应商交货时间进一步延长。尽管市场情绪疲软，但制造商仍持乐观态度，45%的人预计未来一年产量会增加，这得益于全球需求增强和新市场机会的希望。

The AIB Ireland Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in October 2025 from 51.8 in September, signaling the weakest improvement in ten months. Output stagnated as softer demand and lower backlogs curbed production, while new business rose only marginally amid a sharper drop in export sales to Europe. Employment growth persisted for the eleventh month but eased as firms faced skill shortages. Purchasing activity increased slightly, though inventory reductions reflected efforts to improve cash flow. On prices, input cost inflation slowed to a 17-month low, and output price gains were the softest since May 2024 amid lower raw material costs and rising competition. Supplier delivery times lengthened further due to transport delays. Despite softer sentiment, manufacturers remained optimistic, with 45% expecting higher output over the year ahead, supported by hopes of stronger global demand and new market opportunities.