乌克兰PFTS指数 (PFTS) 加自选

乌克兰国家银行决定将其政策利率保持在15.5%，以支持外汇稳定和锚定通胀预期，旨在逐步将通胀降至5%的目标。通货膨胀在5月达到峰值，6月开始下降，但由于恶劣天气影响食品供应，略高于预测。核心通胀放缓速度快于预期。在之前加息的帮助下，外汇市场保持稳定，尽管信号喜忧参半，但通胀预期在很大程度上得到了控制。国家统计局目前预测，2025年通货膨胀率为9.7%，2026年为6.6%，2027年达到5%。经济复苏仍在继续，尽管由于战争影响和恶劣天气而缓慢。预计2025年实际国内生产总值将增长2.1%。持续的外部财政援助（预计2025年为540亿美元）仍然是宏观稳定的关键。风险包括长期战争、援助不足和基础设施的进一步破坏。国家银行计划保持紧缩的货币政策，直到通货膨胀持续下降。

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to keep its policy rate at 15.5% to support foreign exchange stability and anchor inflation expectations, aiming to gradually reduce inflation to the 5% target. Inflation peaked in May and began to decline in June, though slightly above forecast due to adverse weather impacting food supply. Core inflation slowed faster than expected. The FX market remained stable, helped by previous rate hikes, while inflation expectations stayed largely controlled despite mixed signals. The NBU now forecasts inflation at 9.7% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reaching 5% in 2027. Economic recovery continues, albeit slowly due to war impacts and poor weather. Real GDP is projected to grow 2.1% in 2025. Sustained external financial aid (USD 54 billion expected in 2025) remains key to macro stability. Risks include prolonged war, insufficient aid, and further damage to infrastructure. The NBU plans to keep tight monetary conditions until inflation sustainably declines.

乌克兰的年通货膨胀率从上个月的两年高点15.9%降至2025年6月的14.3%，标志着自2024年3月以来消费者价格首次放缓。住房和公用事业的通货膨胀率大幅放缓（2.4%对5月份的20.1%），因为基准年开始包括俄罗斯罢工对乌克兰电网和电力基础设施的影响，推动电价保持稳定（对63.6%）。这抵消了其他关键行业通胀上升的影响。运输（6.2%对5.8%）以及食品和非酒精饮料（23.2%对22.1%）的价格加速上涨，主要是由于去年收成减少和春季寒冷天气推迟了新鲜农产品的生产。与上月相比，消费者价格指数上涨了0.8%。

The annual inflation rate in Ukraine eased to 14.3% in June of 2025 from the two-year high of 15.9% in the previous month, marking the first deceleration in consumer prices since March 2024. Inflation slowed sharply for housing and utilities (2.4% vs 20.1% in May), as the base year started to include the impact of Russian strikes in Ukrainian grids and power infrastructure, driving electricity prices be stable on an annual basis (vs 63.6%). This offset the impact of rising inflation in other key sectors. Prices accelerated for transportation (6.2% vs 5.8%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (23.2% vs 22.1%), mainly due to a smaller harvest last year and cold spring weather that delayed fresh produce. From the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.8%.

2025年5月，乌克兰的年度消费者通胀率上升至15.9%，为2023年4月以来的最高水平，主要原因是食品价格同比上涨22.1%。这一增长速度超过了早些时候的预测，主要是由于去年收成减少和春季寒冷天气推迟了新鲜农产品的生产。仅水果价格就环比上涨17.6%。5月份总体消费价格较4月份上涨1.3%。尽管目前出现飙升，但央行仍将关键利率稳定在15.5%，并表示通胀可能在5月份达到峰值。随着新收成改善供应，预计未来几个月价格压力将有所缓解。央行预测，通货膨胀率在2024年达到12%后，到年底将降至8.7%。

Ukraine’s annual consumer inflation rose to 15.9% in May 2025, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 22.1% year-on-year jump in food prices. The rise has outpaced earlier forecasts, mainly due to a smaller harvest last year and cold spring weather that delayed fresh produce. Fruit prices alone rose 17.6% month-on-month. Overall consumer prices increased 1.3% in May from April. Despite the current spike, the central bank held its key interest rate steady at 15.5%, stating that inflation likely peaked in May. It expects price pressures to ease in the coming months as the new harvest improves supply. The central bank forecasts inflation to fall to 8.7% by year-end, after reaching 12% in 2024.

乌克兰国家银行在2025年6月的会议上将其关键政策利率稳定在15.5%，标志着连续第二次暂停，旨在支持外汇市场稳定，锚定预期，并在政策范围内引导通胀逐步回到5%的目标。政策制定者表示，这一立场将支持外汇市场的可持续性，并控制通胀预期，这将有助于使通胀回到稳定下降的轨道。乌克兰4月份的年通货膨胀率从3月份的14.6%加快至15.1%，将其上升趋势延长至11个月，达到2023年5月以来的最高点。央行估计，5月份通胀继续加速，但预计在新收成和能源行业状况与去年相比有所改善的支持下，通胀将在夏季放缓。

The National Bank of Ukraine left its key policy rate steady at 15.5% at its June 2025 meeting, marking a second consecutive pause, aiming to support FX market stability, anchor expectations, and guide inflation gradually back to its 5% target over the policy horizon. Policymakers said this stance will support the sustainability of the FX market and keep inflation expectations in check, which will help bring inflation back to a steady decline trajectory. Ukraine’s annual inflation rate quickened to 15.1% in April from 14.6% in March, extending its upward streak to 11 months and reaching its highest point since May 2023. The central bank estimates that inflation continued to accelerate in May but expects it to slow over the summer, supported by the new harvest and improved energy sector conditions compared to last year.