由于对美联储“温和降息”的猜测增加,美元走软,瑞士法郎兑美元汇率升至0.79左右,为7月1日以来的最高水平。交易员们预计利率将下调近25个基点,并预计央行将继续降息。法国和日本持续的政治和财政担忧,以及地缘政治紧张局势,也支撑了对法郎的避险需求。在瑞士经济中,最新数据证实了持续的通货紧缩趋势。8月份生产者价格和进口价格再次下降,同比下降1.8%,环比下降0.6%。与此同时,瑞士8月份CPI按预期上涨0.2%,标志着连续第三个月出现正通胀,并保持在瑞士央行0%-2%的目标范围内。尽管通胀有所抑制,瑞士央行主席马丁·施莱格尔最近指出,储户和养老基金面临负利率的风险,这表明该行不愿将利率降至零以下。
The Swiss franc firmed to around 0.79 per USD, its highest level since July 1st, amid a weaker dollar as speculation about a “dovish cut” by the Fed increases. Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25-bps rate cut, and expect the central bank to continue lowering rates. Persistent political and fiscal concerns in France and Japan, along with geopolitical tensions, also underpin safe-haven demand for the franc. In the Swiss economy, the latest figures confirmed a persistent disinflationary trend. Producer and import prices declined again in August, down 1.8% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month. Meanwhile, Swiss CPI rose 0.2% in August as expected, marking the third straight month of positive inflation and remaining within the SNB’s 0%-2% target range. Despite subdued inflation, SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel recently noted the risks of negative rates for savers and pension funds, signaling the bank’s reluctance to cut below zero.