瑞士市场指数 (SMI) 加自选

瑞士消费者信心指数从去年同期的-38升至2025年5月的-37，略高于市场预期的-38。与一年前相比，大多数组成部分都有所改善：对过去财务状况的评估从-58上升到-45，预期财务状况从-36上升到-30，重大采购时间指数从-37.6上升到-28。与此同时，对预期经济发展的看法进一步恶化，从2024年5月的-21.1降至-42.9。

Switzerland’s consumer confidence index rose to -37 in May 2025 from -38 in the same month last year, slightly beating market expectations of -38. Most components showed improvement compared to a year ago: the assessment of the past financial situation rose to -45 from -58, the expected financial situation improved to -30 from -36, and the index for the timing of major purchases increased to -28 from -37.6. Meanwhile, views on expected economic development deteriorated further, falling to -42.9 from -21.1 in May 2024.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率接近0.40%，为5月20日以来的最高水平，因为围绕美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪降低了对传统安全的瑞士资产的需求。与此同时，投资者关注的焦点仍然是包括美联储和欧洲央行在内的主要央行的政策前景。在国内方面，最新的瑞士CPI和GDP数据提高了瑞士国家银行（SNB）在6月19日下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性。瑞士5月份CPI同比下降0.1%，跌破瑞士央行0-2%的目标区间，这是自2021年3月以来的首次通缩读数。与此同时，2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.5%，高于第四季度向下修正的0.3%，但低于初步估计的0.7%。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond was near 0.40%, its highest level since May 20, as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks reduced demand for the traditionally safe Swiss assets. Meanwhile, investor focus also remained on the policy outlook from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB. On the domestic front, the latest Swiss CPI and GDP data raised the odds of Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivering a 25 basis point rate cut in next meeting on June 19. The Swiss CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, slipping below the SNB's 0-2% target range and marking the first deflationary reading since March 2021. Meanwhile, the GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, improving from a downwardly revised 0.3% in Q4 but falling short of the preliminary 0.7% estimate.

瑞士：瑞士重返UST监测名单。ING外汇分析师Chris Turner指出，在外汇业务方面，瑞士和爱尔兰被列入美国财政部的监控名单。

CHF: Switzerland returns to UST's Monitoring List – ING.Switzerland and Ireland were added to the US Treasury's monitoring list when it comes to FX practices, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

为什么瑞士法郎走强可能导致其回到负利率。瑞士可能是第一个恢复负利率以对抗货币飙升和价格下跌的大经济体，这突显出随着全球贸易战的激烈进行，央行行长们可能很快就会耗尽传统政策工具。

Why Switzerland's strong franc could lead it back to negative interest rates.Switzerland could be the first big economy to return to negative interest rates to fight a surging currency and falling prices, highlighting how quickly central bankers may be running out of conventional policy tools as a global trade war rages on.