瑞士市场指数 (SMI) 加自选

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率升至0.80左右，为10月下旬以来的最高点，寄希望于美国和瑞士很快达成贸易协议。据彭博社报道，在瑞士高管与特朗普总统会晤后，美国和瑞士之间的贸易协议可能会在未来两周内宣布，美国对瑞士出口的关税可能会从目前的39%降至15%。美国总统后来证实，他的政府正在“努力达成一项协议，将关税降低一点。”与此同时，瑞士国家银行（SNB）董事长马丁·施莱格尔（Martin Schlegel）最近的言论仍支持法郎，他排除了恢复负利率的可能性。施莱格尔表示，通胀应“在未来几个季度略有上升”，这证明了长期保持利率不变的合理性。与此同时，避险需求持续存在，尽管水平较低，反映出尽管美国政府关门即将结束，但市场仍持谨慎态度。

The Swiss franc strengthened to around 0.80 per USD, its highest since late October, on hopes for a trade deal between the US and Switzerland soon. According to Bloomberg, a trade deal between the US and Switzerland could be announced in the next two weeks, with US tariffs on Swiss exports likely reduced to 15% from the current 39%, following meetings between top Swiss executives and President Trump. The US President later confirmed his administration was “working on a deal to get their tariffs a little bit lower.” Meanwhile, the franc remains supported by recent comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel, who ruled out a return to negative interest rates. Schlegel said inflation should “rise slightly in the coming quarters”, justifying keeping rates on hold for an extended period. At the same time, safe-haven demand persisted, albeit at lower levels, reflecting cautious sentiment despite the prospect of an imminent end to the US government shutdown.

ICYMI-特朗普证实，美国和瑞士即将达成削减39%进口关税的协议。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周一证实，美国和瑞士正在谈判一项协议，以降低华盛顿8月份对瑞士进口商品征收的39%的关税，并表示讨论正在取得进展，但他“尚未确定任何数字”

ICYMI - U.S., Switzerland near deal to cut 39% import tariff, Trump confirms.The United States and Switzerland are negotiating a deal to reduce the 39% tariff Washington imposed on Swiss imports in August, President Donald Trump confirmed Monday, saying discussions were progressing but that he had “not yet set any number.”

瑞士央行截至11月7日的即期存款总额为4600亿瑞士法郎，而此前为4705亿瑞士法郎。瑞士即期存款在过去一周有所回落，但并无异常，其水平仍与6月政策变化以来的过去几个月持平。

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 November CHF 460.0 bn vs CHF 470.5 bn prior.Swiss sight deposits fell back in the past week but nothing out of the ordinary with levels still seen thereabouts as they have been in the past few months since the June policy change.

2025年10月，瑞士消费者信心指数保持在-37，与9月持平，与去年同期持平。对整体经济的预期恶化，经济前景分项指数从2024年10月的-30降至-49，表明对未来增长的悲观情绪加剧。然而，与一年前相比，家庭的经济压力有所减轻。过去财务状况（-40对-53）、预期财务状况（-32对-34）和购买环境（-26对-32）的子指数都有所改善。

Switzerland’s consumer sentiment index held at -37 in October 2025, unchanged from September and matching the level seen a year earlier. Expectations for the overall economy deteriorated, with the economic outlook sub-index dropping to -49 from -30 in October 2024, signaling greater pessimism about future growth. However, households felt somewhat less strained financially than a year ago. The sub-indices for the past financial situation (-40 vs -53), expected financial situation (-32 vs -34), and purchase climate (-26 vs -32) all improved.