波兰华沙WIG指数 (WIG) 加自选

标普全球评级确认波兰的长期外汇评级为“A-”，前景稳定，理由是强劲的中期增长前景与不断上升的债务风险之间存在平衡。该机构表示：“稳定的前景反映了波兰未来两年有弹性的中期增长前景与该国迅速增加的债务相关的经济脆弱性加剧的风险之间的平衡。”。这一决定与惠誉和穆迪将波兰的前景修正为负面的举措形成鲜明对比，理由是在广泛的预算赤字中财政压力越来越大。标普指出，波兰的财政前景仍然疲软，预计到2028年，政府净债务将上升至GDP的67%。这一增长归因于高额的国防和社会支出，以及与2027年议会选举相关的预期成本。穆迪对波兰的信用评级最后被定为A2，展望为负面，而DBRS的信用评级最近被报告为a，展望为稳定。

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Poland's long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-’ with a stable outlook, citing a balance between strong medium-term growth prospects and rising debt risks. “The stable outlook reflects the balance between Poland's resilient medium-term growth prospects over the next two years and the risk of rising economic vulnerabilities related to the country's rapidly increasing debt,” the agency said. The decision contrasts with both Fitch’s and Moody’s moves to revise Poland's outlook to negative, citing mounting fiscal pressures amid a wide budget deficit. S&P noted that Poland’s fiscal outlook remains weak, with net general government debt projected to rise to 67% of GDP by 2028. The increase is attributed to high defense and social spending, as well as anticipated costs related to the 2027 parliamentary elections. Moody’s credit rating for Poland was last set at A2 with a negative outlook, while DBRS’s credit rating was last reported at A with a stable outlook.

波兰国家银行（NBP）在11月4日至5日的政策会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%，这是连续第四次下调，符合市场预期。10月份，年通胀率降至2.8%，低于预期，并连续第四个月保持在央行2.5%±1个百分点的目标范围内。

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its November 4–5 policy meeting, marking the fourth consecutive reduction, in line with market expectations. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in October, below forecasts, and remained within the central bank’s target range of 2.5% ±1 percentage point for the fourth straight month.

波兰的失业率从上个月的5.5%微升至2025年9月的5.6%，符合市场预期。这标志着自2023年2月以来的最高失业率，登记失业人数比上月增加了9800人，达到86.61万人。2024年9月，失业率降至5.0%。

Poland’s unemployment rate edged up to 5.6% in September 2025 from 5.5% in the previous month, in line with market expectations. This marked the highest jobless rate since February 2023, as the number of registered unemployed persons rose by 9.8 thousand from a month earlier to 866.1 thousand. In September 2024, the jobless rate was lower at 5.0%.

波兰制造业的总体商业环境指标在2025年10月降至-8.0，为2月以来的最低水平，低于9月的-6.5。运营挑战加剧，52.4%的公司报告成本上升，38.2%的公司面临供应链中断的主要影响。其他困难，如销售额下降32.3%和与东部承包商的合同终止14.0%，则不太常见。与此同时，其他行业指标显示，与9月份相比，情况趋于稳定或略有恶化，其中住宿和餐饮服务下降幅度最大。金融和保险活动仍然是最积极的，为+23.6，低于长期平均值+25.4，而建筑业则是第二悲观的，为-7.3，也低于其长期平均值-3.6。

The general business climate indicator in manufacturing for Poland fell to -8.0 in October 2025, the weakest reading since February, and down from -6.5 in September. Operational challenges intensified, with 52.4% of companies reporting higher costs and 38.2% facing supply chain disruptions as the main impacts. Other difficulties, such as declines in sales at 32.3% and ending contracts with eastern contractors at 14.0%, were less common. Meanwhile, other sector indicators showed stabilisation or slight deterioration compared with September, with the largest drop in accommodation and food services. Financial and insurance activities remained the most positive at +23.6, below the long-term mean of +25.4, while construction was next most pessimistic at -7.3, also below its long-term average of -3.6.