上证50期货 (CFX_IH) 加自选

周五，离岸人民币兑美元走软至7.18左右，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，因为中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧，安全需求增加，美元走强。以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，大大加剧了人们对更广泛地区冲突的担忧。作为回应，伊朗武装部队总参谋部周五发出警告，称以色列和美国将为其行为“付出非常沉重的代价”。与此同时，在中国，当局宣布计划与53个与其保持外交关系的非洲国家签署一项新的经济协议。该协议旨在取消所有关税，扩大市场准入，不仅向最不发达国家，而且向中等收入国家提供利益。投资者现在将注意力转向下周公布的一批关键经济数据，包括工业产出、零售额和失业率数据。

The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.18 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session, as the US dollar strengthened amid increased safe-haven demand due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran, significantly raising fears of a wider regional conflict. In response, Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff issued a warning on Friday, stating that Israel and the US would "pay a very heavy price" for their actions. Meanwhile, in China, authorities announced plans to sign a new economic agreement with the 53 African nations with which it maintains diplomatic relations. The deal aims to eliminate all tariffs and broaden market access, extending benefits not only to least developed countries (LDCs) but also to middle-income nations. Investors are now turning their attention to a batch of key economic data set to be released next week, including figures on industrial output, retail sales, and the unemployment rate.

周五，上证综指下跌0.5%，至3390点以下，而深证综指下跌1%，至10130点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，地缘政治风险加剧，影响了全球情绪。在经济衰退之前，以色列对伊朗进行了先发制人的打击，针对德黑兰的核设施，标志着中东紧张局势的严重升级。以色列官员承诺将继续行动，直到威胁完全消除，这引发了人们对更广泛不稳定的担忧。在贸易方面，投资者消化了本周早些时候在伦敦达成的美中初步协议的消息。然而，该协议仍需获得美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和Xi的正式批准，这为不确定性留下了空间。跌幅较大的包括贵州茅台（-1.8%）、比亚迪公司（-2.3%）、东方财富（-1.2%）、安徽江淮（-23%）和宜宾五粮液（-2.4%）。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.5% to below 3,390 while the Shenzhen Component dropped 1% to 10,130 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as heightened geopolitical risks weighed on global sentiment. The downturn followed Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran, which targeted Tehran’s nuclear facilities and marked a major escalation in Middle East tensions. Israeli officials pledged to continue operations until the threat is fully neutralized, raising concerns about broader instability. On the trade front, investors digested news of a preliminary US-China agreement reached in London earlier this week. However, the agreement still requires formal approval from Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, leaving room for uncertainty. Notable decliners included Kweichow Moutai (-1.8%), BYD Company (-2.3%), East Money (-1.2%), Anhui Jianghuai (-2.3%), and Wuliangye Yibin (-2.4%).

中国计划与53个与其有外交关系的非洲国家签署一项新的经济协议，取消所有关税，并将市场准入范围扩大到最不发达国家以外，包括中等收入国家。外交部在长沙举行会议后表示：“中国准备……欢迎非洲优质产品进入中国市场。”。虽然北京已经为许多非洲最不发达国家提供免关税和免配额的准入，但新协议旨在创造公平的竞争环境。为了支持坦桑尼亚和马里等可能面临南非等更发达国家竞争的最不发达国家，中国还承诺提供培训和营销支持等额外援助。尽管中非贸易有所增长，但仍然严重偏向中国，去年贸易顺差为620亿美元。在2023年的北京峰会上，中国承诺在三年内提供3600亿元人民币（500亿美元）的信贷和投资，这标志着疫情后与非洲大陆重新接触。

China plans to sign a new economic pact with 53 African nations it has diplomatic ties with, eliminating all tariffs and extending market access beyond just least developed countries (LDCs) to include middle-income nations. “China is ready to... welcome quality products from Africa to the Chinese market,” said the foreign ministry after a meeting in Changsha. While Beijing already offers duty- and quota-free access to many African LDCs, the new deal aims to level the playing field. To support LDCs like Tanzania and Mali, which may face competition from more developed peers like South Africa, China also pledged additional assistance such as training and marketing support. Although China-Africa trade has grown, it remains heavily tilted in China's favor, with a $62 billion surplus last year. At a Beijing summit in 2023, China committed 360 billion yuan ($50 billion) in credit and investments over three years, signaling renewed engagement with the continent after the pandemic.

美元：美中交易——德国商业银行。由于美国通胀数据低于预期，美元昨日贬值，欧元/美元汇率今天上午能够升至4月高点。德国商业银行外汇和商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen指出，在这一点上，我可以花很长时间思考这种反应是否合理，指出美国关税持续缺乏通胀动力的原因，并试图从美联储的角度解释这些数字。

USD: The US-China deal – Commerzbank.The US dollar depreciated yesterday following the weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and the EUR/USD exchange rate was able to rise towards its April high this morning. At this point, I could spend a long time pondering whether the reaction was justified, pointing to explanations for the continued lack of inflationary impetus from US tariffs and attempting to interpret the figures from the Fed's perspective, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.