沪铅主力 (SHF_PB) 加自选

2025年5月，中国银行新增人民币贷款6200亿元，高于4月的2800亿元，这是自2005年以来的最低水平，当时与美国的贸易紧张局势升级。然而，5月，脆弱的90天贸易休战达成，中国人民银行和中国政府采取了支持措施来稳定经济和金融市场，包括全面降息和流动性注入。尽管出现了月度反弹，但5月份的贷款数字低于去年8500亿元和9500亿元的预期。与此同时，社会融资总额增加2.29万亿元，是4月份1.16万亿元的两倍多，大致符合预测。然而，其他指标表明信贷需求持续疲软。未偿还贷款增长放缓至7.1%，为至少1998年以来的最低水平。M2货币供应量增长放缓至7.9%，低于4月份的8%，低于8.1%的预测。

Chinese banks extended CNY 620 billion in new yuan loans in May 2025, up from CNY 280 billion in April, which was the lowest level for that month since 2005, when trade tensions with the US escalated. In May, however, a fragile 90-day trade truce was reached and the People’s Bank of China and the Chinese government introduced support measures to stabilize the economy and financial markets, including across-the-board interest rate cuts and liquidity injections. Despite the monthly rebound, the May loan figure fell short of expectations of CNY 850 billion and CNY 950 billion last year. Meanwhile, total social financing increased by CNY 2.29 trillion, more than double April’s CNY 1.16 trillion and roughly in line with forecasts. However, other indicators pointed to continued softness in credit demand. Outstanding loan growth slowed to 7.1% the lowest rate since at least 1998. M2 money supply growth eased to 7.9%, down from 8% in April and missing the 8.1% forecast.

欧盟4月份出口同比下降1.9%，对中国的出口同比下降15.9%。欧元区4月贸易数据显示，外部需求减弱的迹象，商品出口同比下降1.4%，至2430亿欧元，而进口同比微涨0.1%，至2331亿欧元。尽管出口下降，但在进口增长放缓的推动下，该地区保持了99亿欧元的贸易顺差。

EU exports drop -1.9% yoy in April as shipments to China plunge -15.9% yoy.Eurozone trade data for April showed signs of weakening external demand, with goods exports falling -1.4% yoy to EUR 243.0B, while imports edged up 0.1% yoy to EUR 233.1B. Despite the drop in exports, the region maintained a trade surplus of EUR 9.9B, helped by subdued import growth.

在中国，上海综合指数周五下跌26点，跌幅0.75%。领跌的是广州汽车（-5.10%）、江苏恒瑞（-3.73%）和绿地控股（-2.99%）。涨幅最大的是中航沈阳飞机（3.13%）、上海石化（1.77%）和上海国际港务（1.56%）。

In China, the Shangai Composite Index fell 26 points or 0.75 percent on Friday. Leading the losses are Guangzhou Automobile (-5.10%), Jiangsu Hengrui (-3.73%) and Greenland Holdings (-2.99%). Top gainers were Avic Shenyang Aircraft (3.13%), Shanghai Petrochemical (1.77%) and Shanghai International Port (1.56%).

周五，离岸人民币兑美元走软至7.18左右，扭转了前一交易日的涨幅，因为中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧，安全需求增加，美元走强。以色列对伊朗发动了先发制人的打击，大大加剧了人们对更广泛地区冲突的担忧。作为回应，伊朗武装部队总参谋部周五发出警告，称以色列和美国将为其行为“付出非常沉重的代价”。与此同时，在中国，当局宣布计划与53个与其保持外交关系的非洲国家签署一项新的经济协议。该协议旨在取消所有关税，扩大市场准入，不仅向最不发达国家，而且向中等收入国家提供利益。投资者现在将注意力转向下周公布的一批关键经济数据，包括工业产出、零售额和失业率数据。

The offshore yuan weakened to around 7.18 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session, as the US dollar strengthened amid increased safe-haven demand due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran, significantly raising fears of a wider regional conflict. In response, Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff issued a warning on Friday, stating that Israel and the US would "pay a very heavy price" for their actions. Meanwhile, in China, authorities announced plans to sign a new economic agreement with the 53 African nations with which it maintains diplomatic relations. The deal aims to eliminate all tariffs and broaden market access, extending benefits not only to least developed countries (LDCs) but also to middle-income nations. Investors are now turning their attention to a batch of key economic data set to be released next week, including figures on industrial output, retail sales, and the unemployment rate.