美元/墨西哥比索 (USDMXN) 加自选

美元指数——周五大幅下跌后，空头喘口气。7月份令人失望的美国非农就业数据和对上月数据的强烈向下修正，以及失业率上升，向美联储发出了警告信号，并重新启动了9月份降息的情景（可能还会降息一次，直到年底），而美国决策者在周三的政策会议上刚刚搁置了这一情景。

USD INDEX – Bears Take a Breather After Fridays Sharp Fall.Disappointing US NFP data in July and strong downward revision of previous month's figure, as well as higher unemployment, send warning signals to the Fed and revive the scenario about rate cut in September (and probably one more until the end of the year) which US policymakers just sidelined on Wednesday's policy meeting.

周一，跟踪美国股市的期货走高，押注美联储即将降息，本周潜在收益超过预期，因为市场看起来已经没有劳动力市场放缓和关税上涨的迹象。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数的合约上涨0.6%，而纳斯达克100指数的合约则上涨0.8%。上周，股市暴跌，此前对就业人数的大幅下调消除了美国劳动力市场对关税和美国政府赤字支出增加带来的经济不确定性具有弹性的观点，这加强了美联储今年多次降息的理由。利率期货显示，为下次会议降息定价的头寸反弹，而特朗普总统将在未来几天宣布新任美联储主席，可能支持明年降息。Palantir将在财报公布前开盘上涨2%。反过来，在圣路易斯国防工厂的工人开始罢工后，波音公司本应重新开业。

Futures tracking US equities were higher on Monday on bets of incoming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and potential earnings beats this week, as markets looked past signs of a slowing labor market and higher tariffs. Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow were 0.6% higher while those for the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8%. Equities had slumped last week after aggressive downward revisions to payroll employment erased the view that the US labor market was resilient to economic uncertainty from tariffs and higher deficit spending by the US government, strengthening the case for multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year. Rate futures showed a rally in positions pricing a rate cut next meeting, while President Trump was due to announce the new Fed Chairman, likely in favor lower rates next year, in the coming days. Palantir was due to open 2% higher ahead of their earnings release after the bell. In turn, Boeing was due for a flat open after workers in ST. Louis defense factories started a strike.

就业冲击引发抛售，美联储在9月决策前降息几率激增。7月份疲软的就业报告和向下修正引发了股市抛售，提高了美联储降息的可能性，并将焦点转移到9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议上。

Jobs Shock Triggers Selloff, Fed Cut Odds Surge Ahead of September Decision.July's weak jobs report and downward revisions trigger stock selloff, boost Fed rate cut odds, and shift focus to September's FOMC meeting.

欧元区Sentix情绪暴跌至-3.7，投资者拒绝美欧贸易协议。投资者对欧元区的信心在8月份受到重创，Sentix投资者信心指数从4.5暴跌至-3.7，远低于预期的6.2。现状指数进一步跌至负值，从-7.3降至-13.0。

Eurozone Sentix sentiment crashes to -3.7, investors reject US-EU trade deal.Investor confidence in the Eurozone took a sharp hit in August, with Sentix Investor Confidence Index plunging from 4.5 to -3.7, well below expectations of 6.2. Current Situation Index dropped further into negative territory, falling from -7.3 to -13.0.