越南胡志明股票指数 (VN) 加自选

国际货币基金组织周二表示，由于美国关税的影响，越南今年的经济增长预计将从2024年的7.09%放缓至6.5%。这家多边银行警告称，“下行风险很高”，理由是临时政府刺激措施的解除以及全球贸易紧张局势升级或金融环境收紧的潜在影响。国际货币基金组织指出，这些发展可能会进一步抑制出口和投资。这一前景表明，在全球贸易动态和政策逆风不断变化的情况下，越南出口导向型经济将继续面临压力。第二季度，越南国内生产总值同比强劲增长7.96%，增速高于第一季度的6.93%，为2022年第三季度以来的最快增速，服务业、工业和农业等所有主要行业都实现了更强劲的扩张。

Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to slow to 6.5% this year, down from 7.09% in 2024, due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday. The multilateral lender warned that “downside risks are high,” citing the unwinding of temporary government stimulus and potential fallout from escalating global trade tensions or tighter financial conditions. Such developments, the IMF noted, could further dampen exports and investment. The outlook suggests continued pressure on Vietnam’s export-driven economy amid shifting global trade dynamics and policy headwinds. In Q2, Vietnam’s GDP grew robustly by 7.96% yoy, accelerating from a 6.93% rise in Q1 and marking the fastest pace since Q3 2022, with all major sectors like services, industry, and agriculture all posting stronger expansion.

据路透社报道，越南将从10月10日开始允许企业进口黄金，结束央行对黄金生产的长期垄断。8月26日颁布的一项法令授予符合条件的公司年度黄金进口配额，越南国家银行将向这些公司发放许可证并设定年度限额，旨在实现供应多样化并提高透明度。央行表示，还将加强对黄金交易公司的监管，以遏制洗钱、投机、走私和非法活动。与此同时，它计划推出一个在线黄金交易所。这标志着十多年来首次允许公司进口黄金，这是稳定国内价格飙升的更广泛努力的一部分。当地经济学家指出，此举旨在平衡黄金市场的供需，并有助于调动私人资源支持经济增长。

Vietnam will allow companies to import gold starting October 10, ending the central bank’s long-standing monopoly on bullion production, Reuters reported. A decree issued on August 26 grants qualified firms annual gold import quotas, and the State Bank of Vietnam will issue licences to those companies and set the yearly limits, aiming to diversify supplies and improve transparency. The central bank said it will also tighten oversight of gold trading firms to curb money laundering, speculation, smuggling, and illegal activities. In parallel, it plans to launch an online gold exchange. This marks the first time in over a decade that companies will be permitted to import gold, part of broader efforts to stabilize soaring domestic prices. Local economists noted the move is designed to balance supply and demand in the gold market and could help mobilize private resources to support economic growth.

世界银行周一将越南2025年的增长预测从3月份的6.8%下调至6.6%，远低于政府设定的8.3%-8.5%的目标，理由是在经历了强劲的上半年后，出口增长正常化，经济活动放缓。“作为一个出口导向型经济体，越南仍然容易受到全球增长放缓和主要贸易伙伴需求疲软的影响，”它说，并补充说“贸易政策的不确定性也可能开始影响企业和消费者的信心。”此次降级是在越南最大的出口市场美国从8月7日起对其商品征收20%的关税，第三国转运面临40%的征税之后。从中期来看，在全球贸易复苏和越南制造业竞争力的支持下，预计2026年的增长率为6.1%，2027年将反弹至6.5%。与此同时，越南总理范明钦警告称，贸易紧张局势、地缘政治冲突和供应链中断正在给通胀和汇率带来压力。

The World Bank on Monday trimmed its 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.6% from 6.8% in March and well below the government’s 8.3%-8.5% target, citing moderating activity as export growth normalizes after a strong first half. “As an export-oriented economy, Vietnam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners,” it said, adding that “trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence.” The downgrade comes after the U.S., Vietnam’s largest export market, imposed a 20% tariff on its goods from August 7, with third-country transshipments facing a 40% levy. Over the medium term, growth is projected at 6.1% in 2026 before rebounding to 6.5% in 2027, supported by recovering global trade and Vietnam’s manufacturing competitiveness. Meantime, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has warned that trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain disruptions are adding pressure on inflation and the exchange rate.

2025年1月至8月，越南的外国直接投资（FDI）同比增长8.8%，达到154亿美元，为至少五年来八个月来的最高水平。与此同时，表明未来支出的外国直接投资承诺达到261.4亿美元，比去年同期增长27.3%。同期，越南批准了108个新的海外投资项目，注册资本总额为4.265亿美元，是去年同期的2.9倍。此外，21个现有项目增加了资本，额外贡献了1.297亿美元。越南的海外投资总额，包括新注册资本和调整后资本，达到5.562亿美元，同比增长3.8倍。

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam increased 8.8% year-on-year to USD 15.4 billion from January to August 2025 — the highest level for an eight-month period in at least five years. Meanwhile, FDI pledges, which indicate future disbursements, reached USD 26.14 billion, up 27.3% from the same period last year. During the same period, Vietnam approved 108 new overseas investment projects with a total registered capital of USD 426.5 million — 2.9 times higher than a year earlier. In addition, 21 existing projects increased their capital, contributing an additional USD 129.7 million. In total, Vietnam’s overseas investment — including both newly registered and adjusted capital — reached USD 556.2 million, marking a 3.8-fold year-on-year increase.