巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破5.6,较4月29日达到的2024年10月高点5.62有所回落,因为投资者在持续的贸易战不确定性中消化了最新的劳动力市场数据。巴西第一季度失业率升至7.0%,为2024年5月以来的最高水平,这表明在限制性借贷成本和持续的贸易不确定性的压力下,劳动力市场的弹性有所下降,并迫使央行放弃进一步紧缩政策。与此同时,华盛顿和北京之间再次爆发的贸易战紧张局势有可能削弱对巴西大宗商品出口的需求,而石油和铁矿石价格的疲软已经开始侵蚀巴西货币的传统贸易条件优势。从外部来看,美国第一季度GDP意外以0.3%的年率收缩,而4月份ADP就业人数暴跌至仅62000人,尽管美联储暗示最终将降息,但这引发了避险资金流入美国资产。
The Brazilian real weakened past 5.6 per USD, easing from the October 2024 high of 5.62 reached on April 29th, as investors digested the latest labor market data amid ongoing trade war uncertainties. Brazil’s unemployment rate rose to 7.0% in the first quarter—the highest since May 2024—signaling a less resilient labor market under the weight of restrictive borrowing costs and persistent trade uncertainty, and pressuring the central bank to abandon further tightening. At the same time, renewed trade-war jitters between Washington and Beijing threaten to sap demand for Brazil’s commodity exports, while softer oil and iron ore prices have begun to erode the currency’s traditional terms-of-trade advantage. Externally, U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted at a 0.3% annualized pace in the first quarter, while ADP payrolls plunged to just 62,000 jobs in April, triggering safe-haven flows into U.S. assets despite the Fed signaling eventual rate cuts.