巴西3年期国债 (Brazil3Y) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.3%，收于141422点，创下新纪录，推动8月份涨幅达到6.3%，投资者分析了美国通胀和国内政治发展。美联储首选的指标美国个人消费支出（PCE）按预期同比增长2.6%，这一数据坚定了市场对9月降息的押注，并提振了全球风险偏好。在国内，总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦对联邦警察调查涉嫌燃料行业洗钱的评论，以及他对美国关税争端的谨慎立场，称他更喜欢谈判而不是立即互惠，降低了上市炼油厂和零售商的政策冲击风险。在经济方面，7月份公共债务总额从6月份的76.6%上升到GDP的77.6%，突显出财政紧缩，尽管当地利率风险下降有助于股票估值。巴西国家石油公司上涨0.4%，淡水河谷上涨0.5%，安贝夫上涨0.8%，巴西银行上涨1.6%，巴西国家电力公司上涨1.3%，桑坦德银行上涨0.9%。

The Ibovespa rose 0.3% to close at 141,422 on Friday, a fresh record that pushed August gains to 6.3% as investors parsed US inflation and domestic political developments. US PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, came in as expected with a 2.6% year-on-year rise, a print that firmed market bets on a September cut and lifted global risk appetite. At home President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s comments on the federal police probe into alleged fuel-sector money-laundering and his measured stance on the US tariff spat, saying he preferred negotiation over immediate reciprocity, reduced policy-shock risk for listed refiners and retailers. Economically, gross public debt ticked up to 77.6% of GDP in July from 76.6% in June, underscoring fiscal constraints even as falling local rate risk helps equity valuations. On the tape Petrobras gained 0.4%, Vale 0.5%, Ambev 0.8%, Banco do Brasil 1.6%, Eletrobras 1.3% and Santander 0.9%.

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.4%，收于141500点以上，投资者关注美国通胀数据和总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的评论。卢拉在联邦警方对与燃料零售业、股市和其他行业有关的有组织犯罪的调查中发表讲话，并讨论了美巴贸易争端，称他“不急于”建立互惠关系，更愿意进行谈判。巴西的公共债务总额从6月份的76.6%增加到7月份的77.6%。在美国，个人消费支出价格指数（美联储首选的通胀指标）达到了预期，月增长0.2%，年增长2.6%。根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市场目前预计9月份降息的可能性为85%，高于一个月前的63%。在公司方面，巴西国家石油公司上涨0.2%，淡水河谷上涨0.4%，ItaúUnibanco上涨0.3%，Bradesco上涨0.4%，Ambev上涨0.8%

The Ibovespa rose 0.4% on Friday, holding above 141,500 as investors focused on US inflation data and comments from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula addressed a federal police probe into organized crime linked to the fuel retail sector, stock market, and other industries, and discussed the US-Brazil trade dispute, saying he was “in no hurry” to establish reciprocity, preferring to negotiate. Brazil’s gross public debt increased to 77.6% of GDP in July from 76.6% in June. In the US, the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, met expectations with a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.6% annual increase. Markets now price an 85% chance of a September rate cut, up from 63% a month earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. On the corporate front, Petrobras gained 0.2%, Vale 0.4%, Itaú Unibanco 0.3%, Bradesco 0.4%, and Ambev 0.8%

2025年7月，巴西的名义预算赤字从一年前的819亿雷亚尔扩大到1756亿雷亚尔。综合公共部门的主要赤字为666亿雷亚尔，而2024年7月为213亿雷亚尔。中央政府（564亿雷亚尔）、地方政府（81亿雷亚尔”）和国有企业（21亿雷亚尔“）都出现了赤字。截至7月的12个月里，名义赤字达到9685亿雷亚尔（占GDP的7.86%），高于6月份的8944亿雷亚尔，占GDP的7.30%。同期，初级余额从179亿雷亚尔的盈余（占国内生产总值的0.15%）转变为273亿雷亚尔赤字（占国内总产值的0.22%）。政府总债务上升至国内生产总值的77.6%（9.6万亿雷亚尔），比6月份增加了0.9个百分点。

Brazil’s nominal budget deficit widened to R$175.6 billion in July 2025, up from R$81.9 billion a year earlier. The consolidated public sector posted a primary deficit of R$66.6 billion, compared to R$21.3 billion in July 2024. Deficits were recorded across the Central Government (R$56.4 billion), regional governments (R$8.1 billion), and state-owned enterprises (R$2.1 billion). Over the 12 months through July, the nominal deficit reached R$968.5 billion (7.86% of GDP), up from R$894.4 billion (7.30% of GDP) in June. During the same period, the primary balance shifted to a R$27.3 billion deficit (0.22% of GDP) from a R$17.9 billion surplus (0.15% of GDP). The General Government Gross Debt rose to 77.6% of GDP (R$9.6 trillion), an increase of 0.9 percentage points from June.

2025年7月，巴西的公共债务总额达到GDP的77.6%（9.6万亿雷亚尔），比上个月增长了0.9个百分点。月度变化主要是由于应计名义利息（+0.8 p.p.）、净债务发行（+0.4 p.p.），汇率贬值的影响（+0.1 p.p.）和名义国内生产总值的变化（-0.4 p.p.p.）。今年迄今为止，DBGG增长了GDP的1.1个百分点，主要是由于应计名义利息（+5.1个百分点）、名义GDP增长（-3.6个百分点）和汇率升值的影响（-0.4个百分点）。

Gross Public Debt in Brazil reached 77.6% of GDP (R$9.6 trillion) in July 2025, an increase of 0.9 percentage points of GDP compared to the previous month.The monthly change was mainly due to accrued nominal interest (+0.8 p.p.), net debt issuance (+0.4 p.p.), the effect of exchange rate depreciation (+0.1 p.p.), and the variation of nominal GDP (-0.4 p.p.).For the year to date, DBGG rose by 1.1 p.p. of GDP, mainly as a result of accrued nominal interest (+5.1 p.p.), nominal GDP growth (-3.6 p.p.), and the effect of exchange rate appreciation (-0.4 p.p.).