墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破18.7，从2024年8月的高点回落，此前特朗普总统对加拿大商品征收35%的关税，并威胁对其他合作伙伴征收15-20%的关税，这引发了人们的担忧，即类似的《美墨加协定》相关措施可能会扼杀墨西哥的出口引擎。与此同时，美元指数的持续反弹进一步增加了阻力。与此同时，墨西哥银行6月份的会议记录显示，尽管自2024年初以来已降息325个基点，但政策制定者现在倾向于适度降息25个基点，因为整体通胀率仍高达4.32%，远高于其3%的目标，削弱了对更具支持性的货币立场的预期。汇款流入是外汇的重要来源，目前正面临压力，因为美国参议院正在讨论征收汇款税，剥夺了比索通常的季节性缓刑，使其容易受到美元持续走强的影响。

The Mexican peso weakened past 18.7 per USD, retracing from its August 2024 highs after President Trump’s imposition of a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, and the threat of 15–20% duties on other partners, raised fears that similar USMCA-related measures could choke Mexico’s export engine. Simultaneously, the dollar index’s sustained rebound added further headwinds. Meanwhile, Bank of Mexico minutes from June revealed that, despite 325 bp of rate cuts since early 2024, policymakers are now inclined toward modest quarter-point reductions as headline inflation remains elevated at 4.32%, well above their 3% target, undermining expectations of a more supportive monetary stance. Remittance inflows, a crucial source of foreign exchange, are under pressure as US Senate talks of a remittance tax, stripping the peso of its usual seasonal reprieve and leaving it vulnerable to ongoing dollar strength.

2025年5月，墨西哥工业产出同比下降0.8%，较4月份4%的大幅下降有所缓解，好于市场预期的1.9%的收缩。这一改善主要是由于制造业的反弹，在上个月收缩2.5%后，制造业增长了0.5%。建筑业也趋于稳定，没有增长，但比4月份的6.9%下降有所改善。然而，其他行业的疲软依然存在：采矿业产出收缩8.4%，比4月份7.7%的下降更为严重，而公用事业下降3.7%，而此前的下降幅度为1.8%。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，5月份工业生产增长0.6%，高于4月份的0.2%。

Mexico’s industrial output fell 0.8% year-on-year in May 2025, easing from a sharper 4% decline in April, and better than market expectations of a 1.9% contraction. The improvement was mainly driven by a rebound in manufacturing, which grew 0.5% after contracting 2.5% in the previous month. Construction also stabilized, showing no growth but improving from a 6.9% drop in April. However, weakness persisted in other sectors: mining output contracted 8.4%, deepening from April’s 7.7% decline, while utilities fell 3.7%, compared to a 1.8% drop previously. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.6% in May, accelerating from 0.2% growth in April.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破18.65，从2024年8月的高点回落，因为新的美国关税威胁使墨西哥的主要出口面临风险，并支撑了美元。特朗普总统确认对铜征收50%的关税，墨西哥是世界上最大的铜供应商之一，同时隐晦地警告对药品和半导体征收类似的关税，这危及了该国采矿和制造业的出口收入。与此同时，美联储会议纪要显示，尽管今年晚些时候仍可能降息，但官员们仍对贸易驱动的通胀持谨慎态度，从而维持了对美元的需求。然而，比索的下跌受到墨西哥银行鹰派前景的限制，6月份的核心通胀率意外上升至4.24%，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，以及强劲的外部平衡——1月至5月的贸易顺差超过90亿美元，6月份汇款创纪录地达到57亿美元。

The Mexican peso weakened past 18.65 per USD, easing from its August 2024 highs as fresh US tariff threats have put key Mexican exports at risk and bolstered the greenback. President Trump’s confirmation of 50% duties on copper—a sector in which Mexico ranks among the world’s top suppliers—alongside veiled warnings of similar levies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, has imperiled export revenues for the country’s mining and manufacturing industries. At the same time, US Fed minutes signaled that while rate cuts may still occur later this year, officials remain wary of trade-driven inflation, sustaining demand for the US dollar. However, the peso’s decline has been limited by Banco de México’s hawkish outlook after June’s core inflation unexpectedly rose to 4.24%, the highest since April 2024, and robust external balances—evident in a January–May trade surplus above $9 billion and record $5.7 billion in June remittances.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过18.6，达到11个月高点，因为投资者权衡了持续的价格压力和强劲的外部平衡。6月份核心通胀率意外上升至4.24%，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，这使市场预期围绕墨西哥银行谨慎的降息步伐，即使在6月26日决定将政策利率下调50个基点至8%后，也保持了可观的实际收益缓冲。与此同时，强劲的外汇流入——在1月至5月贸易顺差超过90亿美元（包括5月10.3亿美元的顺差）和6月创纪录的57亿美元汇款的推动下——加强了央行的外汇储备。从外部来看，美元因新的关税威胁而略有反弹，但墨西哥在推迟或减轻互惠关税的谈判中取得的进展在当地有所缓和，为出口商提供了关键的喘息空间。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.6 per USD, reaching eleven-month highs, as investors weighed persistent price pressures against strong external balances. June’s unexpected rise in core inflation to 4.24%, its highest since April 2024, has kept market expectations anchored around Banco de México’s cautious pace of rate cuts, preserving a substantial real yield cushion even after the June 26th decision to trim the policy rate by 50 bps to 8%. Meanwhile, robust foreign-exchange inflows—driven by a widening January–May trade surplus of over $9 billion (including a $1.03 billion surplus in May) and record June remittances of $5.7 billion—have fortified the central bank’s FX reserves. Externally, the US dollar’s slight rebound on renewed tariff threats has been tempered locally by Mexico’s progress in negotiations to delay or mitigate reciprocal duties, lending exporters critical breathing room.