墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

2025年9月，墨西哥工业生产同比下滑2.4%，此前8月份修正后下降3.3%，几乎与分析师预测的2.4%的下滑一致。这标志着墨西哥工业活动连续第六个月以温和的速度下滑。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，9月份产出下降0.4%，延续了上月0.3%的跌幅。

Mexico's industrial production slipped by 2.4% year-on-year in September 2025, following a revised 3.3% drop in August, almost aligning with analysts' estimates of a 2.4% slump. This marked the sixth consecutive month of a downturn in Mexican industrial activity, and at a modest pace. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, output fell by 0.4% in September, extending a 0.3% decrease in the prior month.

墨西哥工业产出（年环比）从之前的-3.6%攀升至9月份的-2.4%。墨西哥工业产出（年环比）从之前的-3.6%攀升至9月份的-2.4%

Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) climbed from previous -3.6% to -2.4% in September.Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) climbed from previous -3.6% to -2.4% in September

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.4以上，通胀疲软、政策信号更加明确和美元走软消除了抛售压力，并撤回了利差。10月整体CPI降至3.57%，轻松位于央行2%至4%的区间内，而核心通胀率已放缓至4s的低点，降低了短期通胀上行风险。Banxico早些时候将政策利率下调了25个基点，至7.25%，正如预期的那样，但其谨慎的、依赖数据的声明和乔纳森·希思的唯一异议表明，宽松政策将是渐进的，这限制了比索抛售的范围。由于这一举措在很大程度上得到了定价，直接收益率冲击被减弱，主要效果是降低政策不确定性并重新调整风险溢价。与此同时，随着美国融资谈判的进展和政府关门的头条新闻缓解了避险需求，美元从最近的峰值回落。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.4 per US dollar as a mix of softer inflation prints, clearer policy signaling and a weaker US dollar removed selling pressure and drew back carry flows. October headline CPI eased to 3.57%, comfortably inside the central bank’s 2 to 4% band, while core inflation has moderated to the low 4s, lowering near-term upside inflation risk. Banxico earlier cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% as expected, but its cautious, data dependent statement and a lone dissent from Jonathan Heath signalled that easing will be gradual, which limited the scope for a selloff in the peso. Because the move was largely priced in, the direct yield shock was muted and the main effect was to reduce policy uncertainty and recalibrate risk premia. At the same time the US dollar pulled back from recent peaks as progress on US funding talks and shutdown headlines eased safe haven demand.

继9月份下降0.3%之后，墨西哥汽车出口在2025年10月同比下降5.5%，至314227辆。大众汽车（-7.4%，至28451辆）、日产（-52.6%，至21264辆）、本田（-23.5%，至17300辆）、奥迪（-9.6%，至15711辆）和宝马集团（-23.3%，至11992辆）的出口下降。今年迄今为止，汽车出口下降约1.5%，至288.1万辆。

Mexico’s car exports fell 5.5% year-on-year to 314227 units in October 2025, following a 0.3% decrease in September. Exports fell for Volkswagen (-7.4% to 28451), Nissan (-52.6% to 21264), Honda (-23.5% to 17300), Audi (-9.6% to 15711) and BMW Group (-23.3% to 11992). Year-to-date, auto exports fell around 1.5% to 2.881 million units.