墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.65左右，接近7月23日达到的18.537的一年高点，因为美元走软被国内资金流动减弱和Banxico政策路径所抵消，而Banxico的政策路径现在看起来更加渐进。汇款是美元供应的主要来源，今年迄今已下降约5%，消除了2025年初帮助比索的结构性顺风。与此同时，7月份失业率从6月份的2.7%微升至2.8%，温和的疲软使消费降温，并缩小了更快放松的空间。央行已经开始了一个有节制的宽松周期，将利率下调25个基点至7.75%，并预示着一个缓慢的、依赖数据的下滑路径，这降低了利率套利交易的吸引力。从外部来看，本周美元表现出双向压力，此前美国第二季度国内生产总值被上调至约3.3%，劳动力数据意外上涨，而美国高调的政治举措给美联储的前景蒙上了阴影，并使美元保持低迷。

The Mexican peso steadied around 18.65 per USD, close to the one-year high of 18.537 reached on July 23th, as a softer dollar was offset by weaker domestic flows and a Banxico policy path that now looks more gradual. Remittances, a key source of dollar supply, have fallen about 5% year to date, removing a structural tailwind that helped the peso earlier in 2025. At the same time unemployment edged up to 2.8% in July from 2.7% in June, a modest softening that cools consumption and narrows room for faster easing. The central bank has started a measured easing cycle, cutting 25bp to 7.75% and signalling a slow, data dependent glide path, which reduces interest rate carry trade appeal. Externally the dollar has shown two-way pressure this week after Q2 US GDP was revised higher to about 3.3% and labour data surprised on the upside while high-profile US political moves cloud the Fed outlook and keep the greenback subdued.

墨西哥的失业率从6月份的2.7%微升至2025年7月的2.8%，相当于170万人失业。女性失业率为2.7%，男性为2.8%。按教育水平划分，12.4%的失业者没有完成中学教育，而87.3%的失业者受过高等教育。25-44岁的求职者比例最高（48.5%），其次是15-24岁（33.2%）。关于求职时间，48%的人失业长达一个月，30.5%的人失业一到三个月。与2024年7月相比，整体失业率下降了0.2个百分点，男性下降了0.3个百分点，而女性失业率没有变化。

Mexico’s unemployment rate edged up to 2.8% in July 2025 from 2.7% in June, equivalent to 1.7 million people without work. The rate stood at 2.7% for women and 2.8% for men. By education level, 12.4% of the unemployed had not completed secondary school, while 87.3% held higher levels of education. The largest share of jobseekers was aged 25–44 (48.5%), followed by 15–24 (33.2%). Regarding job search duration, 48% had been unemployed for up to one month, and 30.5% between one and three months. Compared with July 2024, the overall unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a 0.3-point decline for men, while the female rate was unchanged.

据彭博新闻社周三报道，墨西哥计划在其2026年预算提案中提高对中国商品的关税，旨在保护当地企业免受廉价进口的影响，并回应美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的长期要求。加息可能涉及汽车、纺织品和塑料，预计也将波及其他亚洲国家。虽然细节尚不清楚，可能会发生变化，但总统克劳迪娅·谢恩鲍姆政府的提案草案将于9月8日前提交国会。此举是在今年早些时候美国向墨西哥施压，要求其与对中国的关税保持一致之后做出的。此后，墨西哥官员提出了“北美堡垒”战略，以遏制中国的出口，同时加强美墨加贸易关系，这一想法受到了美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特的欢迎。随着Sheinbaum寻求缩小墨西哥的预算赤字，更高的关税也将有助于增加收入，该赤字在2024年膨胀到20世纪80年代以来的最高水平。

Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese goods in its 2026 budget proposal, aiming to shield local businesses from cheap imports and respond to a long-standing request from U.S. President Donald Trump, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. The hikes, which could cover cars, textiles, and plastics, are also expected to hit other Asian countries. While details remain unclear and subject to change, the draft proposal from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is due to Congress by Sept. 8. The move follows U.S. pressure earlier this year for Mexico to align with its own duties on China. Mexican officials have since floated a “Fortress North America” strategy to curb Chinese shipments while strengthening U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade ties, an idea welcomed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Higher tariffs would also help boost revenue as Sheinbaum seeks to narrow Mexico’s budget deficit, which swelled to its widest since the 1980s in 2024.

墨西哥在2025年7月公布了1.7亿美元的贸易逆差，与一年前的185.4亿美元差距缩小，但未达到3亿美元顺差的预测。出口增长4%，至567亿美元，非石油销售增长5.2%，而石油出口下降23%。进口额增长1.7%，达到567亿美元。消费品进口额达到87亿美元，增长0.4%，其中非石油产品增长3.4%，石油相关产品下降13.8%。中间产品进口增长2.5%，至429亿美元，非石油产品增长2.9%，石油相关产品下降3.5%。资本货物进口下降2.2%，至51亿美元。

Mexico posted a $0.017 billion trade deficit in July 2025, narrowing from an $18.54 billion gap a year earlier but missing forecasts of a $0.3 billion surplus. Exports rose 4% to $56.7 billion, driven by a 5.2% increase in non-oil sales, while oil exports fell 23%. Imports grew 1.7% to $56.7 billion. Consumer goods imports reached $8.7 billion, up 0.4%, with non-oil items rising 3.4% and oil-related down 13.8%. Intermediate goods imports increased 2.5% to $42.9 billion, supported by a 2.9% gain in non-oil products and a 3.5% decline in oil-related items. Capital goods imports slipped 2.2% to $5.1 billion.