墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

随着投资者消化最新的增长数据，墨西哥比索兑美元汇率徘徊在19.60左右，接近六个多月来的最高水平。墨西哥经济避免了技术性衰退，第一季度GDP初步增长0.2%，超过了停滞的预期，并从上一季度0.6%的收缩中反弹。尽管温和的季度环比扩张足以避免技术性衰退，但它并没有改变经济脆弱性的总体情况。国内不确定性加剧、金融条件限制以及持续易受美国贸易战溢出效应影响，这些因素仍然笼罩着前景。早些时候的数据显示，3月份失业率降至2.2%的历史低点，而4月中旬核心通胀率加速至3.9%，这增强了人们对Banxico可能暂停宽松周期的预期，并有助于维持广泛的实际利率差异，继续吸引大量套利交易流入。

The Mexican peso hovered around 19.60 per USD, remaining near its highest level in over six months as investors digested the latest growth data. The Mexican economy avoided a technical recession with preliminary Q1 GDP growth of 0.2%, exceeding expectations of stagnation and rebounding from the previous quarter’s 0.6% contraction. Although the modest quarter-over-quarter expansion was enough to avert a technical recession, it does little to alter the broader picture of economic fragility. The outlook remains clouded by elevated domestic uncertainty, restrictive financial conditions, and ongoing vulnerability to spillovers from the U.S. trade war. Earlier data showed that unemployment fell to a record-low 2.2% in March while core inflation accelerated to 3.9% in mid-April, reinforcing expectations that Banxico may pause its easing cycle and helping to sustain a wide real-rate differential that continues to attract sizable carry-trade inflows.

2025年第一季度，墨西哥国内生产总值环比增长0.2%，从上一季度0.6%的收缩中反弹，超过了市场对无增长的预期。初步估计显示，初级活动产出增长8.1%，工业国内生产总值下降0.3%，服务业产出保持稳定。墨西哥经济年增长率为0.6%。虽然温和的季度环比增长足以使墨西哥避免陷入技术性衰退，但这并没有改变经济脆弱性的总体情况。国内不确定性增加、金融条件限制以及持续受到美国贸易战影响的影响，前景仍然笼罩。

The Mexican GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in the previous quarter and beating market expectations of no growth. Preliminary estimates showed the output from primary activities rose by 8.1%, while the industrial GDP decreased by 0.3% and the services output held steady. On a yearly basis, Mexico's economy grew by 0.6%. While the modest quarter-over-quarter growth was enough to keep Mexico from slipping into a technical recession, it does little to shift the broader picture of economic fragility. The outlook remains clouded by elevated domestic uncertainty, restrictive financial conditions, and continued exposure to fallout from the U.S. trade war.

墨西哥第一季度国内生产总值（同比）从之前的0.5%上升至0.6%。墨西哥第一季度国内生产总值（同比）从之前的0.5%上升至0.6%

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5%.Mexico Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to 0.6% in 1Q from previous 0.5%

墨西哥第一季度国内生产总值（QoQ）从之前的-0.6%增至0.2%。墨西哥第一季度国内生产总值（QoQ）从之前的-0.6%增至0.2%

Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6%.Mexico Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 0.2% in 1Q from previous -0.6%