秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

2025年5月，秘鲁的贸易顺差从去年同期的19.48亿美元收窄至13.55亿美元。出口同比下降1.5%，至61.62亿美元，受传统产品出口（-7.1%）和其他产品（-13.8%）下降的推动，部分被非传统产品出货量增长17%所抵消。与此同时，进口激增11.5%，达到48.07亿美元，反映出资本货物（+22.3%）、消费品（+19.6%）以及原材料和中间产品（+2.7%）的购买量增加。今年前五个月，贸易顺差达到96.9亿美元，高于2024年同期的75.36亿美元，出口增长17.3%，进口增长13.2%。

Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 1,355 million in May 2025 from USD 1,948 million in the same month last year. Exports fell 1.5% year-on-year to USD 6,162 million, driven by declines in traditional product exports (-7.1%) and other products (-13.8%), partially offset by a 17% increase in non-traditional product shipments. Meanwhile, imports surged 11.5% to USD 4,807 million, reflecting higher purchases of capital goods (+22.3%), consumer goods (+19.6%), and raw materials and intermediate goods (+2.7%). For the first five months of the year, the trade surplus reached USD 9,690 million, up from USD 7,536 million in the same period of 2024, as exports rose 17.3% and imports increased 13.2%.

秘鲁央行在7月份的会议上将基准利率维持在4.5%不变，并表示未来的调整将取决于有关通货膨胀及其主要驱动因素的新数据。这一决定是在最近的通货膨胀数据显示6月份每月上涨0.13%，核心通货膨胀率上涨0.07%之后做出的。年通货膨胀率保持在1.7%，核心年通货膨胀率从1.8%降至1.7%。未来12个月的通胀预期仍为2.3%，在央行的目标范围内。官员们预计，短期内通货膨胀率将保持在该范围的下限，并随着时间的推移稳定在中点附近。尽管当前经济指标略有恶化，但大多数仍处于乐观状态，表明经济活动接近潜在水平。该行指出，由于贸易限制，全球增长前景减弱，加剧了不确定性和金融市场波动，并重申其承诺，将根据需要调整政策以实现通胀目标。

The central bank of Peru left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% in its July meeting, stating that future adjustments will depend on new data regarding inflation and its key drivers. The decision followed recent inflation figures showing a 0.13% monthly rise in June, with core inflation up 0.07%. Annual inflation held at 1.7%, and core annual inflation edged down from 1.8% to 1.7%. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 2.3%, within the central bank’s target range. Officials expect inflation to remain at the lower end of that range in the short term and stabilize near the midpoint over time. Despite a slight deterioration in current economic indicators, most remained in optimistic territory, suggesting activity near potential levels. The bank noted that global growth outlooks have weakened due to trade restrictions, fueling uncertainty and financial market volatility, and reiterated its commitment to adjusting policy as needed to meet its inflation goals.

2025年4月，秘鲁的国内生产总值年增长率为1.4%，比上个月的4.67%大幅放缓。这标志着经济连续第13个增长期，但是自去年6月以来最疲软的，因为运输业的活动减速（4.84%对3月份的8.82%），农业（-7.53%对3.34%）、制造业（-2.86%对3.20%）和建筑业（-1.30%对5.22%）的收缩幅度更大。与此同时，采矿和碳氢化合物（8.55%对7.04%）、住宿和餐饮（4.64%对1.34%）的产出加速，商业（2.83%对3.90%）的产出保持稳定。经季节性调整后，全国生产指数较上月上涨0.38%。

Peru’s GDP grew by 1.4% annually in April 2025, slowing sharply from a 4.67% expansion in the previous month. This marked the 13th consecutive period of economic growth but the softest since June last year, as activity decelerated in transportation (4.84% vs. 8.82% in March) and contracted more steeply in agriculture (-7.53% vs. 3.34%), manufacturing (-2.86% vs. 3.20%), and construction (-1.30% vs. 5.22%). Meanwhile, output accelerated in mining and hydrocarbons (8.55% vs. 7.04%), lodging and restaurants (4.64% vs. 1.34%), and remained steady in commerce (2.83% vs. 3.90%). The national production index, with seasonal adjustment, rose 0.38% compared to the previous month.

2025年4月，秘鲁的贸易顺差从去年同期的8.307亿美元扩大到13.34亿美元。出口同比增长12.4%，达到58.02亿美元，这得益于非传统产品销售的激增（+40.3%），以及在较小程度上传统产品（+4%）的增长。与此同时，进口增长放缓3.1%，至44.68亿美元，反映出消费品（+14.4%）和资本品（+6.8%）的购买量增加，部分被中间产品（-3.4%）和其他商品（-18.2%）的下降所抵消。今年前四个月，贸易顺差达到82.2亿美元，高于去年同期的55.89亿美元，出口增长22.2%，进口增长13.6%。

Peru’s trade surplus widened to USD 1,334 million in April 2025 from USD 830.7 million in the same month last year. Exports advanced 12.4% year-on-year to USD 5,802 million, driven by a surge in non-traditional product sales (+40.3%) and, to a lesser extent, traditional products (+4%). Meanwhile, imports increased at a softer pace of 3.1% to USD 4,468 million, reflecting higher purchases of consumer goods (+14.4%) and capital goods (+6.8%), partially offset by declines in intermediate goods (-3.4%) and other goods (-18.2%). In the first four months of the year, the trade surplus reached USD 8,220 million, up from USD 5,589 million in the same period last year, with exports climbing 22.2% and imports rising 13.6%.