秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

秘鲁首都利马的年通货膨胀率从3月份的6年半低点1.28%上升到2025年4月的1.65%，标志着五个月来的首次加速。尽管如此，4月份的数字连续13个月保持在央行1-3%的目标范围内。主要上涨压力来自食品和非酒精饮料价格（3月份为0.97%对-0.82%）；娱乐和文化（2.90%对2.77%）和杂项商品和服务（2.57%对2.53%）。按月计算，4月份消费者价格指数上涨0.32%，较上月0.81%的涨幅有所放缓。

The annual inflation rate in Peru's capital, Lima, rose to 1.65% in April 2025, from a 6-1/2-year low of 1.28% in March, marking the first acceleration in five months. Still, the April figure remained within the central bank’s target range of 1-3% for the 13th month in a row. Main upward pressure came from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.97% vs -0.82% in March); recreation & culture (2.90% vs 2.77%) and miscellaneous goods & services (2.57% vs 2.53%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.32% in April, slowing from a 0.81% rise in the previous month.

与去年同期相比，秘鲁2025年2月的国内生产总值同比增长2.68%，低于上个月4.07%的增长率，也低于市场预期的3.5%的增长率。尽管如此，这一结果标志着经济连续第十一个扩张期。运输业（5.66%对1月份的7.85%）、制造业（1.94%对5.53%）、商业（3.09%对3.16%）以及住宿和餐饮业（0.64%对3.32%）的产出放缓。反过来，采矿业（-1.36%对1.39%）以及电力、天然气和水（-1.64%对1.46%）的产量也出现了收缩。与此同时，建筑业（5.91%对4.13%）和农业（4.35%对3.24%）的产出加速增长。在此期间，经季节性调整，全国生产指数比上月下降了-0.10%。

Peru’s GDP grew by 2.68% year-on-year in February of 2025 compared to the same period a year earlier, down from the 4.07% growth recorded in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 3.5% expansion. Still, the result marked the eleventh consecutive period of economic expansion. Output slowed in the transportation sector (5.66% vs 7.85% in January), manufacturing (1.94% vs 5.53%), commerce (3.09% vs 3.16%), and accommodation and restaurants (0.64% vs 3.32%). In turn, output contracted for mining (-1.36% vs 1.39%), and electricity, gas and water (-1.64% vs 1.46%). Meanwhile, output accelerated for construction (5.91% vs 4.13%) and agriculture (4.35% vs 3.24%). In the period, the national production index, with seasonal adjustment, fell by -0.10% compared to the previous month.

秘鲁的贸易顺差从去年同期的16.45亿美元扩大到2025年2月的21.09亿美元。出口同比增长15.2%，达到63.18亿美元，这得益于传统产品（+13.6%）和非传统产品（+20.3%）的销售额增长。与此同时，进口增长缓慢，为42.1亿美元，增长9.6%，反映出消费品（+20.8%）、中间产品（+0.2%）和资本货物（+9.0%）的购买量增加。今年前两个月，贸易顺差从31.18亿美元扩大到39.82亿美元，出口增长20.9%，进口增长18.1%。

The trade surplus in Peru widened to USD 2,109 million in February 2025 from USD 1,645 million in the same period last year. Exports rose by 15.2% year-on-year to USD 6,318 million, driven by higher sales of both traditional products (+13.6%) and non-traditional products (+20.3%). Meanwhile, imports increased at a slower pace of 9.6% to USD 4,210 million, reflecting greater purchases of consumer goods (+20.8%), intermediate goods (+0.2%), and capital goods (+9.0%). Over the first two months of the year, the trade surplus expanded to USD 3,982 million from USD 3,118 million, with exports up 20.9% and imports rising 18.1%.

秘鲁央行于2025年4月将基准利率维持在4.75%，这是连续第三个月没有变化。政策制定者强调，未来的任何调整都将以即将公布的通胀数据及其潜在驱动因素为指导。3月份，整体通胀率降至1.3%，而核心通胀率降至1.9%，与央行目标区间的中点紧密一致。尽管国内经济指标显示经济将逐步复苏，但由于贸易紧张局势加剧，尤其是在美国，全球前景已经恶化，加剧了不确定性和市场波动。在此背景下，BCRP重申了其保持价格稳定的承诺，并表示将采取依赖数据的方法。它还为本币业务制定了具体的利率，包括隔夜存款的年利率为2.75%。

Peru’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% in April 2025, marking the third consecutive month without a change. Policymakers emphasized that any future adjustments will be guided by incoming data on inflation and its underlying drivers. In March, headline inflation eased to 1.3%, while core inflation fell to 1.9%, aligning closely with the midpoint of the central bank’s target range. Although domestic economic indicators pointed to a gradual recovery, global outlooks have deteriorated amid rising trade tensions—particularly in the United States—fueling uncertainty and market volatility. Against this backdrop, the BCRP reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability and signaled a data-dependent approach moving forward. It also established specific rates for local currency operations, including a 2.75% annual rate for overnight deposits.