美元/瑞典克朗 (USDSEK) 加自选

7月份非农就业人数将走弱，强化美联储的立场-美国银行。美国银行表示，7月份的报告应该以美国非农就业人数为主题，预计将增加6万人。该公司表示，在6月份临时招聘激增后，州和地方政府工作岗位的减少将拖累这一数字。

Non-farm payrolls to be weaker in July, reinforcing the Fed's stance - BofA.BofA is saying that the July report should feature a softer headline on the US non-farm payrolls, with them estimating a print of +60k. The firm says that a drop in state & local government jobs as being what will weigh down the number after June's temporary hiring surge.

欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，与美国的贸易协议仍在继续。提醒一下，这在很大程度上只是为促进双方进一步谈判而建立的临时框架。这不是一项全面的贸易协议，欧盟主要是在重申这一观点。

EU trade commissioner Sefcovic says the work continues on trade deal with US.As a reminder, this is largely just a temporary framework that is set up to facilitate further negotiations between both sides. It is no comprehensive trade deal and the EU is mainly reaffirming that notion.

预计2025年7月美国非农就业人数将增加11万人，这是五个月来最小的增幅，与6月份的14.7万人相比有所放缓。失业率预计将从4.1%微升至4.2%，而工资增长可能从0.2%升至0.3%。总体而言，该报告预计将表明劳动力市场持续降温，因为围绕关税、贸易和移民政策的不确定性导致许多雇主采取更谨慎的招聘立场。这些数字也将低于三个月平均15万的增幅，但将继续突显劳动力市场的根本弹性，每月工资增长在10万至17万之间，足以跟上劳动年龄人口的增长。

US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 110K in July 2025, marking the smallest increase in five months and a slowdown from June’s gain of 147K. The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1% while wage growth likely increased to 0.3% from 0.2%. Overall, the report is expected to point to a continued cooling in the labor market, as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies leads many employers to adopt a more cautious hiring stance. The figures would also be below the three-month average gain of 150K, but would continue to underscore a fundamentally resilient labor market, with monthly payroll gains in the 100K-170K range, sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population.

瑞典银行制造业采购经理人指数从上个月向下修正的51.8上升至2025年7月的54.2。这是自2022年5月以来的最高读数，与该指数54.3的历史平均值大致一致。最大的积极贡献来自订单分类指数（6月份为56.2比48.8），其次是供应商的交货时间（53.1比50.7）和库存采购（46.4比47.5）。然而，生产（54.8比55.6）和就业（51.7比52.1）的分项指数呈负增长。与此同时，制造业企业的生产计划仍然乐观，该指数从62.8升至63.6。供应商原材料和投入品价格指数从50.4小幅降至50.3，表明该行业的价格压力仍然疲软。负责PMI分析的Jörgen Kennemar警告称，围绕全球贸易政策的不确定性仍然存在，就像瑞典工业的湿毯一样，未来有可能出现挫折。

Sweden’s Swedbank Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.2 in July 2025 from a downwardly revised 51.8 in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since May 2022 and was broadly in line with the index's historical average of 54.3. The largest positive contribution came from the sub-index for incoming orders (56.2 vs 48.8 in June), followed by suppliers' delivery times (53.1 vs 50.7) and inventory purchases (46.4 vs 47.5). However, the sub-indices for production (54.8 vs 55.6) and employment (51.7 vs 52.1) contributed negatively. Meanwhile, manufacturing companies' production plans remained optimistic, with the index rising to 63.6 from 62.8. The index for suppliers' raw and input prices edged down to 50.3 from 50.4, indicating that price pressures in the sector remain subdued. Jörgen Kennemar, responsible for the PMI analysis, warned that uncertainty surrounding global trade policy remains and lies like a wet blanket over Swedish industry with a risk of potential setbacks ahead.